Do Not Enter News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Fair elections in 2028

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

US national bitcoin reserve created

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

trump gets hospitalized

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump and Obama shake hands

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Dow rises above 65,000

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

War is declared against another nation

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Joe Biden dies

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

10% fewer government agencies

NATO invokes Article 5

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump gets covid (again)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New national park created

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

The department of education gets desolved

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump dies

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump gets shot

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

south park is canceled/discontinued

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

A national ban on gender-affirming care

"covfefe" posted again

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

A hurricane will be nuked

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

YES

YES

Russia deliberately violated Polish airspace, but did not intend it as an act of war

Russian drones entered Polish airspace due to a technical or human error by Russia

Russia carried out an intentional act of war against Poland

Russian drones were diverted into Polish airspace by Ukrainian electronic warfare

Ukrainian drones entered Polish airspace by accident

Ukraine or a NATO member state conducted a false flag attack on Poland

2030+ or never

2026

2029

2027

2028

2024

4-JIKA COMES BACK AND BEATS SHANKS

6-Kid does his best to re enter the race to the one piece(invalid if number 3 happens)

5-Kid gives up

1-Useless Mid is dead

2-Joins another faction(BB, revs, cross guild, etc)

7-Other

At least 1,000 cases are detected

At least 5,000 cases are detected

A human-to-human transmission event in the US is confirmed by the CDC

The mortality rate of a Hantavirus outbreak exceeds 20% in a single country

At least 10,000 cases are detected

A vaccine for Hantavirus enters Phase 3 clinical trials

A specific Hantavirus strain is classified as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern

An effective antiviral treatment for Hantavirus is approved by the FDA

At least 100,000 cases are reported

At least 1,000 deaths are reported

Hantavirus is declared a pandemic by the WHO

At least 5,000 deaths are reported

At least 10,000 deaths are reported

A major sports league shuts down its operations

Patrick Lefevere will leave his position as cycling manager.

A SQS rider will win the Olympics Road Cycling Race 2024.

Remco Evenepoel will leave

Quick-Step will leave as title sponsor.

SQS will win at least one Tour de France stage each year (from 2024).

Specialized will leave as bike sponsor.

SQS will merge with another team.

A SQS rider will win at least one World Championships Road Cycling Race.

Soudal will leave as title sponsor.

SQS will win a Tour de France GC.

NEOM will enter as a title sponsor.

SQS will win at least one Grand Tour GC (from 2024).

Taiwan's ally count falls to 11

China destroys a Taiwanese boat with gunfire or explosives (not a water cannon)

Taiwan's ally count falls to 10

China declares a blockade of boats entering Taiwan (any number)

China shoots down a Taiwanese plane

If China attacks, they fight US forces within 21 days

China launches a missile that hits Taiwan (the island)

If China attacks, they fight US forces within 14 days

China controls Wuqiu

Taiwan's ally count falls to 9

Taiwan's ally count falls to 8

If China attacks, they fight US forces within 7 days

100+ people are killed in the conflict

China lands troops on Taiwan (the island)

China controls Kinmen

China controls Matsu

China controls Penghu

1k+ people are killed in the conflict

10k+ people are killed in the conflict

100k+ people are killed in the conflict

You can go in if your boat is in this marina right now.

If there is a fire and your boat stored here burns up partially and is not seaworthy, can you go in?

If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, are you allowed in?

If you owned a boat which is here, but it's been molecularly exchanged for identical but different atoms by aliens, you can go in

If your boat here sinks can you go in?

If your boat is here and you contracted a spot, but all legal record of that burned in a fire, and the only one who remembers who is still alive is you, and you paid cash, are you allowed in?

You can go in if you are a guest of someone who is a boat owner.

The dock owner is not allowed to go in, unless he is or is with a boat owner

Only official owners of a specific but unspecified boat located on the dock are allowed through

You can go in if you own a real live seaworthy boat now anywhere in the world.

If you privately own the company that owns the boat, you may enter

If you stole a boat, parked it here with a legal berth lease contract, then left, and return, can you go in?

If you are a shareholder in the company that owns the boat, you may pass

If California becomes officially Marxist, where ownership is an exclusive right of the state, can you anyone go in at all?

If the 24 hour video surveillance of the marina is disabled, that invalidates that sign immediately above, creating a presumption that all the signs on the fence are false, and making it the case that only non-boat owners are allowed.

You can go in if you own any kind of boat in any condition in the world, including toy boats, model boats, Lego boats, virtual boats in baldurs gate etc.

The gate will prevent all non-boat owners from passing. Guests and passengers must swim

The sign isn't about who is allowed through, it's about the contents of what's on the other side. Everything beyond the fence is a Boat Owner.

If you own 1% of a boat here you can go in

You can go through if you open the gate

You can go in if your spouse is a boat owner

If you own half a boat stored here legally you can go in

Joshua, byrne, marcus, Odoacre, firstuserhere, and at least one legalistic fan from the UAW strike claim horror show will participate

You can go in if you have no boat, but plan to buy one someday and have a contract for a reserved berth space

You can go through if you have a contracted and paid berth here.

You can go in if you have a berth contract but are behind in payment.

Bonus: people who own three boats stored here can alternate sleeping arrangements so that in any seven day period they never sleep in one more than 3 days, legally?

This market will entirely be excluded from leagues

You can go in if you own a Binary Oxidizing Acetylitic Thermometer.

You can go in if you are a former boat owner but have converted it to a sailplane, which is here.

You can go in if you are a leashed dog that doesn't own a boat, but is with a boat owner

You can go in if you have a rental boat stored here.

Ghosts are allowed because they say B.O.O. (Boat Owners Only), which is the password

You can go in if your grandpa is a boat owner

You can go in if you are ex navy.

Add tooltips that explain how everything works

Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

Open markets in new tab by default

Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

Dark Mode

Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

Allow people to place long-term limit orders

Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

Make a row flash when its probability changes

Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

Tianwen-4 successfully enters Jupiter orbit

Tianwen-4 launches with a secondary Uranus flyby probe

Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto impacter

Juice and Europa Clipper are both still active when Tianwen-4 arrives at Jupiter

Tianwen-4 successfully enters Callisto orbit

Tianwen-4 launches before 2030

Tianwen-4 launches after 2030 and before 2035

Tianwen-4 launches with a Callisto lander