DominATE News

Stray Kids, Newcomer CORTIS Headline Late-August Surge in K-Pop Releases

3 days ago

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7039400

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Ethereum (ETH)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Gold (Au)

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

TRUMP

Manifold Mana

Paperclips

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

Aug 5, 8:43 PMAug 31, 11:59 PM

7.73%chance

208160

OptionVotes

YES

3455

289

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Oct 13, 4:17 PMJul 2, 5:00 PM

73.18%chance

413662

OptionVotes

YES

1181

828

Will transformers still be the dominant DL architecture in 2026?

Jan 13, 2:51 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.57%chance

242250

OptionVotes

YES

1929

592

Will "most eSports be dominated by people with paralysis [by August 2034]"

Aug 4, 3:50 PMAug 11, 9:59 PM

11.98%chance

212150

OptionVotes

YES

2711

369

Will pop-up shops become the dominant hub of offline commerce by 2026?

Jan 28, 4:27 AMFeb 4, 4:59 AM

7.41%chance

11910

OptionVotes

YES

1800

877

Iphone is no longer apples dominant product line in terms of revenue by the end of this decade?

Sep 6, 10:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

34.98%chance

14627

OptionVotes

YES

1005

963

Will Bitcoin dominance reach 70% before 2030?

May 8, 7:48 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

67.4%chance

15592

OptionVotes

YES

1026

914

Will a company replace Google's dominant market position by 2028?

Sep 3, 12:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.25%chance

13518

OptionVotes

YES

1102

951

By 2040, the dominant intelligence will be as different from modern humans as modern humans are from cro magnons

Feb 26, 1:39 PMJan 27, 4:59 AM

40.61%chance

16422

OptionVotes

YES

1160

873

If AI becomes economically dominant will we see Universal Basic Income (UBI) become a reality shortly thereafter?

Sep 28, 9:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.01%chance

17375

OptionVotes

YES

1022

950

Will "Explaining British Naval Dominance During the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 12:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.96%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

1052

732

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Aug 10, 2025
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Stray Kids, Newcomer CORTIS Headline Late-August Surge in K-Pop Releases
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What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Will World Model AIs start being used in games in early 2026 and quickly start dominating the Game Development industry?

[Metaculus] Will solar power on Earth dominate renewable energy consumption before 2031?

Will transformers still be the dominant DL architecture in 2026?

Will "most eSports be dominated by people with paralysis [by August 2034]"

Will pop-up shops become the dominant hub of offline commerce by 2026?

Iphone is no longer apples dominant product line in terms of revenue by the end of this decade?

Will Bitcoin dominance reach 70% before 2030?

Will a company replace Google's dominant market position by 2028?

By 2040, the dominant intelligence will be as different from modern humans as modern humans are from cro magnons

If AI becomes economically dominant will we see Universal Basic Income (UBI) become a reality shortly thereafter?

Will "Explaining British Naval Dominance During the..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram