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Top stories

Marvel’s Feige Plans Pivot From Kang to Doctor Doom

Marvel’s Feige Plans Pivot From Kang to Doctor Doom

Authors

4

13 days ago

Prediction markets for Doom

If Eliezer Yudkowsky charitably reviews my work, he will update his p(doom) to < 0.1. (Below 10%)

Jul 2, 2:25 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.5%chance

262479246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10207

8290

At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?

Mar 14, 8:29 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

56%chance

20846475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2518

1141

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

Feb 13, 4:54 PMJan 1, 12:30 PM

22.6%chance

6118588

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1391

838

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

May 14, 7:54 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM

14.01%chance

879220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2170

883

Is MCU Dr. Doom a Tony Stark variant?

Jul 28, 5:23 AMNov 5, 5:59 AM

58.66%chance

262684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

What will be the average P(doom) of AI researchers in 2025?

Jan 26, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.02%chance

582542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1867

1852

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.96%chance

291950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

762

Will someone play Doom on the Moon by the end of 2060?

Apr 3, 4:14 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.56%chance

221095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

907

Will more than one MF DOOM song be played during the MCU film DOOMSDAY?

Aug 17, 3:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.46%chance

11811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Dec 27, 7:40 AMDec 28, 4:59 AM

35.37%chance

20636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1004

972

Will Doctor Doom be alive at the end of Avengers: Secret Wars?

May 14, 2:36 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

65.64%chance

9539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

724

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.62%chance

12205

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

966

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