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Prediction markets for DSA
If H.R 9495 is passed, which nonprofits will be targeted by it before 2029?
Nov 23, 4:43 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM
183567
OptionProbability
85
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
47
45
43
41
40
40
40
39
37
34
34
33
28
26
15
When will the Democratic Socialists of America next endorse the Democratic nominee for US president? (2024 and later)
May 22, 7:49 AMDec 31, 1:59 PM
82281
OptionProbability
23
19
19
19
19
2
OptionProbability
99
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
1319
758
Who will the DSA endorse at the start of the 2028 Democratic primaries?
Jan 30, 8:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
10421
OptionProbability
34
28
24
14
OptionVotes
379
26
What National DSA-endorsed candidates will win their elections in 2026?
Jul 18, 11:29 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM
10353
OptionProbability
100
100
100
100
100
100
66
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will a candidate explicitly running as a Socialist be elected to Philadelphia City Council by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
23.8%chance
9301
OptionVotes
202
120
Will a suspect be identified in the ‘DSA’ White Powder Letters by EOY 2026?
Oct 17, 5:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
90.46%chance
3262
OptionVotes
385
41
OptionProbability
72
63
62
62
52
35
35
Will the EU Digital Fairness Act be formally adopted (published in the Official Journal of the EU) by December 31, 2028?
Oct 14, 11:21 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM
36%chance
270
OptionVotes
133
75
Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50%chance
124
OptionVotes
124
67
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