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Prediction markets for Earth
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?
May 15, 1:19 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
75%chance
18253982
OptionVotes
2063
1170
If AI wipes out humanity will everyone on Earth fall over dead in the same second?
Feb 27, 7:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8.7%chance
14336408
OptionVotes
5405
1263
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
70.89%chance
17425268
OptionVotes
11948
9070
Will a new 'Highest Air Temperature on Earth' record be set this decade
Apr 5, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
41.62%chance
13623838
OptionVotes
1928
769
Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?
Apr 20, 12:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
32%chance
8721359
OptionVotes
1417
1073
Will at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?
Sep 8, 12:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM
1.82%chance
6213694
OptionVotes
7347
136
Will there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
Jan 17, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
36.49%chance
2513090
OptionVotes
13201
7571
Will over 1000 people live permanently outside Earth's atmosphere by 2050?
Aug 17, 12:33 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM
37.11%chance
868609
OptionVotes
1273
840
Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?
Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
6%chance
315805
OptionVotes
3000
734
Will the Sun engulf the Earth before 12 billion years from now.
Dec 8, 8:11 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM
12.87%chance
315554
OptionVotes
1907
761
Will at least one crewed Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2028/2029 launch window?
Sep 8, 12:29 AMMar 31, 3:59 PM
4.23%chance
73985
OptionVotes
4758
210
OptionVotes
1507
1493