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Enhance Sets Nov. 11 Launch for ‘Lumines Arise’, Issues One-Week Demo
Authors
5
10 days ago
Prediction markets for Easy
Prediction markets for Easy
Will the ARC Prize Foundation succeed at making a new benchmark that is easy for humans but still hard for the best AIs?
Jan 9, 5:56 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
87.77%
chance
29
8987
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2679
373
Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?
Nov 15, 8:54 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
40%
chance
82
7039
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1048
902
H5N1 virus acquires human-to-human easy transmission capability by June 1st, 2027
May 23, 10:08 PM
Jan 1, 12:59 AM
25.89%
chance
9
3348
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1692
591
Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?
Dec 12, 6:15 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
35%
chance
35
1217
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1111
913
are LLMs easy to align because unsupervised learning imbues them with an ontology where human values are easy to express
Aug 29, 2:34 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
28.89%
chance
14
759
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1217
858
Will there be easy auto-translation of the entire Chinese Internet into English by 2027? (such that people in America can easily and regularly hold conversations with people in China - with minimal loss of interpretation)?
Oct 4, 12:39 AM
Oct 11, 3:59 AM
74.79%
chance
26
735
Option
Votes
YES
NO
998
935
Will it be cheap and easy and permanently remove hair by the beginning of 2028?
Nov 27, 7:03 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
20.74%
chance
13
379
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1127
948
Will "Two easy things that maybe Just Work to impro..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 9, 2:26 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
13.59%
chance
2
53
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1030
995
Recommended a text to video AI so easy that a child can use it...
Jan 1, 8:21 PM
0
0
Help me find a good and easy Spam filter solution for Manifold
Sep 27, 9:50 PM
0
0
[EASY MANA] Leave a review for Manifold Markets on the App Store
Aug 9, 1:54 AM
Aug 9, 2:29 PM
0
0
Recommend some good and easy money making schemes for a teenager
Nov 2, 6:54 PM
0
0
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