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Top stories

FBI Raids Bolton Home; Former Adviser Blasts Trump’s Ukraine Policy

US Foreign Policy

FBI Raids Bolton Home; Former Adviser Blasts Trump’s Ukraine Policy

Authors

15

1 year ago

Prediction markets for ed

Will Ed Gallrein underperform Trump?

May 20, 4:51 AMNov 20, 4:50 AM

97.79%chance

63879

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4854

806

Will Ed Davey lead the Liberal Democrat party into the next General Election?

Jan 6, 4:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

58%chance

9557

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

Will Thomas Massie endorse Ed Gallrein?

May 17, 7:33 AMDec 31, 6:32 AM

1%chance

4445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

480

92

In 2030, will Yudkowsky think his 2023 Time op-ed helped or harmed our chances?

Mar 30, 2:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10288

OptionProbability

Helped with >80% confidence

Helped with >60% confidence

Uncertain

Harmed with >60% confidence

Harmed with >80% confidence

64

23

7

5

1

Will I get ED CMU SCS 2026

Dec 17, 12:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

6201

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will ed boyden prefrontal cortex turn into more than 1 percent microplastics by weight by 2030?

Aug 22, 3:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.59%chance

1173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

Will the US ban businesses/merchants from receiving large crypto transfers from non-'KYC'ed self-hosted wallets?

Mar 24, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.56%chance

14166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

996

Ed Sheeran has a billboard number 1 single in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.81%chance

7114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

155

Will Ed Boyden win a Nobel Prize any time in the future?

Jan 10, 7:05 AMJan 28, 4:59 AM

16.59%chance

4100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

70

Will Ed Markey be the longest serving congressperson ever?

Feb 5, 12:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.58%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

91

Will Jose Ricon OR Adam Marblestone OR Ed Boyden OR Steve Horvath OR Jeremy nixon get a pet axolotl by 2032?

Sep 16, 7:51 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Ed Boyden or Adam Marblestone be coauthor on a paper mentioning microplastics by EOY2031?

Sep 14, 7:20 PMSep 22, 3:59 AM

47.64%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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