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Prediction markets for election
OptionProbability
23
20
10
7
5
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
23
19
17
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?
Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
120673423
OptionProbability
55
26
15
2
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
28
23
19
6
5
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM
22.55%chance
284450635
OptionVotes
158913
75113
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM
31.33%chance
526245516
OptionVotes
6901
6797
OptionProbability
23
19
19
6
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Jul 18, 5:32 PMJul 2, 4:59 AM
55.13%chance
13957603
OptionVotes
11535
8513
Will the 2028 US presidential election occur "as normal"?
Feb 19, 1:33 AMJan 28, 3:59 PM
75%chance
13433316
OptionVotes
10400
7578
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
Dec 7, 7:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
59.74%chance
1410573
OptionVotes
12181
8209
Will the 2028 US Presidential election happen normally?
Nov 5, 11:09 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM
69.77%chance
116660
OptionVotes
15043
6736
Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?
Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM
45.04%chance
181847
OptionVotes
10307
9733
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