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Electoral Reform News

    Prediction markets for Electoral Reform

    OptionProbability

    One or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK

    5 or more Conservative MPs defect to Reform UK in a coordinated way

    Strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 100 or fewer constituencies

    The leaders of Reform UK and the Conservative Party announce a merge of the parties

    Weak electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives run against each other in 500 or fewer constituencies

    Very strong electoral pact: in the general election, Reform UK and Conservatives do not run against each other in any constituencies

    One or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party

    3 or more Reform UK MPs defect to the Conservative Party in a coordinated way

    Richard Tice defects to the Conservative Party

    Nigel Farage defects to the Conservative Party

    100

    45

    40

    31

    29

    15

    14

    14

    12

    9

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2359

    424

    OptionProbability

    Party lists [currently in use]

    Single winner FPTP districts [currently in use]

    Proportional balancing seats [currently in use]

    Some form of parallel voting (where multiple electoral systems are used independent of each other) [currently in use]

    Closed lists [currently in use]

    FPTP voting for presidential elections [currently in use]

    All the same components of the current system (i.e. no electoral change is passed)

    Non-party list multi-winner districts

    Single non transferable vote (1 vote per multiple seats)

    Open lists

    A rule prohibiting (or attempting to prohibit) parties from creating satellite parties

    Any form of ranked voting used to elect the legislature or president

    An increase in the portion of PR balancing seats prior to February 2019 or an increase in the maximum potential portion of balancing seats if a system is used where the number of balancing seats is allowed to vary

    An increase in the portion of seats elected in parallel using party list PR prior to February 2019

    Any non FPTP voting system for presidential elections

    Any system with proportional balancing seats where the balancing seats are tied to the vote totals from the non proportional seats (ex. the mixed single vote system used in the 2019 Thailand election)

    A runoff for presidential elections

    A rated voting method (ex. approval voting) presidential elections

    Any form of runoff used to elect the legislature or president

    Single transferable vote (a form of ranked voting)

    A ranked voting method (ex. instant runoff voting) for presidential elections

    Any form of rated voting used to elect the legislature or president

    Sequential proportional approval voting

    87

    85

    85

    85

    85

    85

    76

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    28

    28

    28

    24

    15

    15

    15

    14

    13

    13

    5

    US Election Reform Megamarket (2050)

    Dec 17, 12:06 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
    8807

    OptionProbability

    Automatic Voter Registration Act

    Redistricting Reform (independent commissions for redistricting)

    Automatic Voter Registration

    Early voting

    Mail-in voting

    Election Day Reform (Holiday, or moving to a weekend)

    Banning Super PACs

    Public Financing for Candidates

    Campaign contribution limitations (individual or corporate)

    National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC)

    Campaign finance transparency (no dark money)

    Ranked-Choice Voting

    Approval Voting

    Shortened Campaign Season (<=6 months for primary+general)

    Compulsory voting

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    45

    42

    40

    40

    32

    30

    29

    29

    10

    9

    Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

    Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    33.7%chance
    15616

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1403

    713

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    205

    29

    Major changes to UK electoral system before next general election?

    Oct 11, 10:46 AMAug 14, 10:59 PM
    22.98%chance
    5117

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    183

    55

    What party will win the 2026 Welsh elections?

    Nov 13, 11:44 PMMay 11, 10:59 PM
    130

    OptionProbability

    Plaid Cymru

    Reform

    Labour

    Liberal democrats

    The Green party

    Conservative

    Other

    35

    21

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

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