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Prediction markets for Electron

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.5%chance

1812354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9625

2195

Storage devices with neural networks pre-loaded sold in major electronics retailers by end of 2035

Jan 5, 5:22 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

30.11%chance

197235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15224

6573

Will consumer electronics feature room temperature ambient pressure superconductors before 2025?

Jul 31, 5:00 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

2.56%chance

394225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3804

810

When will rocket lab first attempt to re-fly an Electron booster? #Recovery-and-reuse

Apr 10, 2:16 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

43069

OptionProbability

Before December 2026

Before December 2027

Before June 2026

Before January 2026

Before October 2025

Before July 2024

Before October 2024

Before January 2025

Before July 2025

Before April 2025

59

58

45

34

22

0

0

0

0

0

Is the electron a point particle?

Mar 17, 7:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

87.83%chance

172791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

918

Will All ATP Tour level matches use Electronic line calling by the end of 2028

Mar 6, 12:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.56%chance

81700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

319

Will Rocket Lab successfully reuse an Electron Booster by EOY 2025?

Apr 4, 3:05 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

32.23%chance

16894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1603

392

Will a novel computing medium enter consumer electronics by EYO 2030?

Dec 16, 7:15 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.13%chance

24760

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

960

Will charged lepton flavor violation via muon to electron conversion be observed by 2030?

Mar 14, 3:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.98%chance

11284

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1086

947

How many times will Electron launch in 2025?

Dec 23, 7:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

275

OptionProbability

<= 18

<= 16

<= 14

<= 10

<= 12

<= 8

72

63

50

28

28

0

Will the effectiveness of water-powered, electronics-free dressings replicate with humans?

Aug 12, 10:15 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

56.74%chance

115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Electronic Arts Stock

Apr 12, 12:33 AMApr 12, 5:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

NO

YES

70

70

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