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Top stories

Southern Brave Go Unbeaten With Eight Wins as Trent Rockets, Northern Superchargers, and Oval Invincibles Secure Men’s Hundred Playoff Spots

Southern Brave Go Unbeaten With Eight Wins as Trent Rockets, Northern Superchargers, and Oval Invincibles Secure Men’s Hundred Playoff Spots

Authors

3

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Eliminator

Department of Education eliminated by June 2026

Dec 26, 12:22 AMJul 1, 12:00 AM

5.04%chance

4521274

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4340

230

Trump eliminates federal income tax in 2026?

Jan 25, 2:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.81%chance

169986

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7362

136

If Trump or other Republican wins in 2024, how many cabinet level departments will be eliminated before the end of 2028?

Jun 18, 12:20 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

143600

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

More than 3

52

28

8

7

4

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15.34%chance

533171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1805

749

Does Lantern Bioworks' product to prevent cavities also eliminate "morning breath"?

Apr 10, 8:58 PMDec 31, 5:01 AM

31.4%chance

382226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1282

778

Will Trump eliminate taxes on gambling winnings?

Dec 11, 6:57 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

25.17%chance

8932

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1724

580

The Republicans will be the party to eliminate the Filibuster

Apr 4, 2:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.05%chance

21860

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

968

Will Congress pass a bill eliminating or increasing per-country caps on employment-based green cards by December 31 2026

Jan 30, 6:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

28.17%chance

5602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1597

626

Will the "Stepped Up Basis" rule be eliminated in the US federal tax code before 2035?

Aug 28, 8:27 PMSep 5, 3:59 AM

31.16%chance

2500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1486

673

Will systemic poverty be eliminated before 2050?

Nov 15, 10:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

26.94%chance

22473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

971

Will all infectious diseases of all types be effectively eliminated from human civilization before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.94%chance

10351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

950

Will "Canada Lost Its Measles Elimination Status Be..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 26, 7:38 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

43.37%chance

3300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

264

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