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Prediction markets for Emergent Pro
Will proof emerge that the world is ruled by lizard people?
Dec 30, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
2.04%chance
6711146
OptionVotes
4368
1156
Will an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?
Aug 25, 5:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.78%chance
181090
OptionVotes
1146
873
OptionVotes
1094
946
Proportion of motor vehicle-related emergency room visits falls by more than 50% by 2030
Jul 15, 4:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
42.7%chance
12240
OptionVotes
1003
991
Proportion of motor vehicle-related Emergency room visits falls from 2023's 9.5% to below 8% for 2029
Jul 15, 4:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
58.14%chance
8119
OptionVotes
200
167
Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?
Apr 20, 10:44 PMNov 1, 8:01 AM
32.43%chance
329
OptionVotes
130
95
Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?
Jun 18, 3:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.36%chance
112
OptionVotes
112
89
Will some1 from University of Washington's "early entrance program/UW Academy"/RC win Emergent Ventures by 2030?
Sep 21, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45%chance
05
OptionVotes
55
45
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