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Prediction markets for EQS
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM
32.98%chance
5710753
OptionVotes
11036
10936
Will Sam Altman receive a significant equity stake in OpenAI? (>= 3% of the company) before end of 2025?
Sep 27, 5:49 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
23.75%chance
666432
OptionVotes
1871
391
Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?
Oct 23, 10:05 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
77.04%chance
393976
OptionVotes
1533
793
Will the Supreme Court decide the status of the Equal Rights Amendment by the end of 2028?
Jan 17, 7:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.8%chance
112475
OptionVotes
1464
683
Will xAI reach 50 million H100-equivalents in 5 years?
Jul 22, 6:31 PMJul 24, 3:59 AM
53.86%chance
122013
OptionVotes
1080
926
Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025
Jan 22, 4:01 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
32.68%chance
151259
OptionVotes
1435
697
In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Feb 17, 4:38 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.66%chance
411103
OptionVotes
1215
939
Will 10 million Americans be on semaglutide (or yet-to-be-approved equally good or superior alternatives) by the end of 2030?
Nov 24, 12:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
78.22%chance
27922
OptionVotes
1346
871
Will the EU require virtual currency purchases to display real-money equivalents within a year?
Sep 12, 2:35 AMSep 11, 9:59 PM
21.09%chance
7890
OptionVotes
1333
86
Will the 12-month inflation rate announced in January 2026 be lower or equal than 3.0%
Nov 15, 11:55 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
40.58%chance
4310
OptionVotes
1210
826
Will European Union greenhouse gaz emissions reach less than 5tCO2 eq per capita by 2035?
Apr 15, 1:08 AMJun 1, 9:59 PM
59%chance
3116
OptionVotes
153
127
OpenAI tender offer (or equivalent) before 2027-01-01 at >$20/unit?
Dec 26, 1:16 AMJan 2, 12:00 AM
54.75%chance
2100
OptionVotes
1100
909
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