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Prediction markets for European security

will portugal win the fifa world cup 2026

Jul 5, 3:48 AMJun 19, 11:59 PM

9.09%chance

143832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2698

543

If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?

Mar 12, 8:49 PMJun 20, 7:59 PM

44.62%chance

573590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

96

EU ends unanimous decision-making by EOY 2035?

Jul 14, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.17%chance

101697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2277

439

Will Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?

Jun 3, 9:34 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

41.23%chance

261358

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

838

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6693

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Finland

Other

Estonia

Lithuania

Latvia

79

7

6

3

3

3

Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?

Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.7%chance

15616

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

NSC wins seats in 2025 Dutch Elections?

Jun 4, 8:08 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

10.39%chance

8596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

294

34

Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

78.72%chance

10198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

957

Will the UK introduce compulsory English lessons for adult migrants receiving public benefits before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.16%chance

896

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

What will Germany's defense budget be for 2025? (excluding Zeitenwende!)

Feb 19, 6:33 PMOct 31, 10:59 PM

295

OptionProbability

€53.25 billion or lower (current plan or lower)

Between €53.26 billion and €79.99 billion

€80 billion or higher

54

33

13

Robinhood fined for OpenAI token sale before 2028?

Jul 3, 9:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.97%chance

459

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

92

EU Council approves Catalan as official language before October 10, 2025

Jul 12, 1:01 PMOct 9, 11:59 PM

48.67%chance

640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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