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Prediction markets for European security
OptionVotes
123
82
Will Donald Trump carry out an invasion of Greenland before 2029?
Feb 27, 6:35 PMJan 4, 11:59 PM
5.11%chance
192719
OptionVotes
431
23
OptionVotes
1729
578
OptionVotes
1137
920
By the end of 2027: Germany will be actively engaged in war or there will be acts of war on German Territory.
Apr 4, 9:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
8%chance
13832
OptionVotes
385
175
OptionVotes
1336
748
Will the next El Salvador presidential election be free and fair?
Apr 18, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
34.03%chance
15627
OptionVotes
1392
718
OptionProbability
45
7
7
7
7
6
5
5
5
4
Will Protestant and English-speaking countries become even more individualistic in the next World Values Survey?
Sep 25, 8:23 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM
79.01%chance
11213
OptionVotes
1118
952
OptionVotes
102
98
Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?
Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
48.12%chance
4157
OptionVotes
1091
1011
What will happen to Germany if AfD controlled Chancellorship before 2031?
Oct 6, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM
110
OptionProbability
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
34
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