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Evolution News

    Prediction markets for Evolution

    OptionProbability

    It will have a new character (not just a revision or morph)

    Jorbs will play it on twitch live in the first week of release

    In mid 2026 there will be more concurrent players on StS 2 than on StS 1

    The final boss will be the heart (or some obvious natural evolution of that character)

    All current cards for at least one character will be playable

    It will be released first in 2024

    It will be released first in 2025

    There will be some game mechanic like ascension levels but they will go higher or take more steps than sts1's ascension 20

    It will have four playable characters on release

    100

    100

    89

    22

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    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    A person has a moral right to own a gun

    We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.

    GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.

    The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.

    Other

    Eventually, only AI should be sovereign

    Some people have genuine psychic capabilities

    Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars

    Being a billionaire is morally wrong

    The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.

    It is not possible to multitask

    Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)

    Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)

    Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries

    Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes

    OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.

    The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice

    There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care

    Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development

    Abusive parents should lose custody of their children

    Tech bros are really, really annoying

    Capitalism has done far more harm than good

    Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.

    Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.

    COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.

    Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.

    California is wildly overrated.

    Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)

    Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.

    Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.

    Music is a net negative for humanity

    Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.

    Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.

    Abortion is morally wrong

    jskf's password is ***************

    The first American moon landing was faked

    There is no Dog

    Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites

    Cars should not have sound systems

    AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns

    Pet ownership is morally wrong

    LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025

    SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud

    It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building

    There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever

    Cascadia should be an independent country

    Children should not be raised in nuclear families

    The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM

    Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad

    If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing

    Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America

    @Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.

    Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy

    We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.

    [PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol

    SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.

    Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription

    The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.

    Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.

    Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in

    It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.

    This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.

    We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.

    Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.

    The next American moon landing will be faked

    Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated

    We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles

    Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad

    Cars are a societal net negative

    Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities

    Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.

    Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.

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    OptionProbability

    Playable on Nintendo Switch 2 on release

    Pikachu can be caught in-game

    Choice of Fire, Water and Grass type starters (or same with secondary typing)

    Two matching games released simultaneously

    Titles are “Wind(s)” and “Wave(s)”

    Features “traditional” turn based battles

    Mega Evolution is a feature

    At least one previously unused type combination receives a Pokémon

    Has 5.0 or higher Metacritic user score 3 months after release (either entry)

    At least 100 new Pokemon are introduced

    DLC announced before launch date

    Pokémon Home compatibility on launch

    At least 3 previously unused type combinations receive a Pokémon

    Has an online ranked ladder for doubles battles

    The Stellar type is present in any way

    Eevee receives a new evolution

    Returns to a region from a previous main series game

    At least 5 previously unused type combinations receive a Pokémon

    Paradox Pokémon available before first DLC

    Z-Moves are a feature

    At least 151 new Pokemon are introduced

    Features real time battles similar to Legends ZA

    An entirely new Type is introduced

    Playable on Nintendo Switch on release

    Has any voice acting

    Terastallization is a feature

    Game is set in European inspired region

    A change is made to the existing type effectiveness chart

    All Pokemon are in the Game

    Dynamax is a feature

    Romance mechanics between the player and Pokemon

    Released on or before 1st October 2025

    Released on or before 1st January 2026

    Released on or before 1st April 2026

    Released on or before 1st July 2026

    Released on or before 1st January 2027

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    94

    82

    81

    78

    78

    50

    48

    46

    36

    36

    30

    24

    23

    22

    21

    17

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    8

    8

    6

    3

    3

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    OptionProbability

    Genetic care

    Non-steroid Athletic Augmentation (NAA)

    Intentional Genetic Selection (IGS)

    Humanity Enhancement

    Heritage Optimization

    Guided evolution

    Conscious Genetic Elections (CGE)

    Deliberate Allele Choice (DAC)

    Conception freedom

    Directed Elective Variation (DEV)

    Hereditary Crafting

    Voluntary Trait Selection (VTS)

    Choose your own Geneventure (CyoG)

    Voluntary eugenics (many people will still oppose it as if it was involuntary, but no amount of branding can win them over)

    Alleartistry (Alleart)

    53

    37

    36

    31

    27

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    OptionProbability

    Red Mars by Kim Stanley Robinson

    Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir

    Diaspora by Greg Egan

    Blindsight by Peter Watts

    Anathem by Neal Stephenson

    Foundation by Isaac Asimov

    Seveneves by Neal Stephenson

    Other

    Semiosis by Sue Burke

    The Martian by Andy Weir

    Dark Eden by Chris Beckett

    The Years of Rice and Salt by Kim Stanley Robinson

    Evolution by Stephen Baxter

    Children of Ruin by Adrian Tchaikovsky

    Lockstep by Karl Schroeder

    25

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    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    OptionProbability

    Eevee

    Hypno

    Cloyster

    Granbull

    Jynx

    Golduck

    Kabutops

    Ninetales

    50

    33

    31

    31

    26

    25

    25

    22

    OptionProbability

    Greninja

    Chesnaught

    Delphox

    Dragonite

    Hawlucha

    Raichu X

    Raichu Y

    Malamar

    Victreebel

    76

    66

    66

    52

    50

    50

    50

    41

    27

    OptionProbability

    I get my car a very weird paint job which would make it unsellable

    Will go to edge Esmeralda (in any capacity, at least one event)

    Will get cavity preventing bacteria

    Japan JET Reunion 2025

    I buy a video camera that can record for 24h+ and record various public places

    Pickleball tournament

    I use computer vision to run diy studies of politeness behavior, grouped by car brand etc

    I start an AI beauty/art twitter and get 1k followers

    I document a method of self modifying an SLR by blackening all surfaces

    Publish and finish personal)group predictions tracking software

    AI phrenology - publish a doc on a study of AI image generation models differential portrayals of previously very hard to measure aspects of the human condition such as facial shape linkages to personality

    Build a personal pickleball court and attract community members to play there

    Surreptitiously construct additional pickleball courts at Foster City

    Publish an edited dashcam video of all the things I've filmed with the Tesla ssd

    Tool to view twitter as someone else. Given that follows are public this should be easy

    Create a nice Tesla models y fold over screen cover with cutouts for vital areas only. Makes night driving much easier. No need for a distracting map view if you're not turning for 200 miles

    I off road hike far into iron point outside Golconda, NV

    I set a personal daily mileage record

    Make balatro mod which shows currently selected hand score if played (ie everyone's need for this otherwise great game)

    Get gphotos to fix any of their innumerable UI bugs by complaining

    Have a sci-fi story published online somewhere

    Make neighborhood intro video with stories etc

    Will go to a natal conference again

    Local Free library and bulletin board at my place

    Overland trek to CITY in Nevada, an off-limits experimental art city which has been in progress for over 50 years

    Go to Mexico to see Trevor Bauer play

    Go see the Starship 4 launch in Texas in 2024

    Release "Reading the mind in the AI generated images"

    Get over 1k users for my browser extension

    Ship something involving image => description => more images to users

    I go to West Africa and go to concerts, visit Nollywood etc

    I write a science fiction novel about aliens who experiment with forced evolution

    Browser extension to add metadata on all people's names, relating to their offspring number, success, etc

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