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Prediction markets for Excel
OptionVotes
27291
3912
Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?
Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
82.09%chance
2016004
OptionVotes
9006
1009
OptionProbability
2507
2431
OptionProbability
3139
2774
Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2026?
Jan 8, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
85.09%chance
162845
OptionVotes
1122
937
Which Microsoft software products will xAI compete with by the end of 2026?
Aug 25, 2:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51183
OptionProbability
21
20
20
20
18
18
18
18
15
11
Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?
Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM
46.32%chance
14846
OptionVotes
1077
929
Will there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2063?
May 28, 3:20 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM
63.05%chance
15301
OptionVotes
1081
826
Did Real Median Income Decrease During the Biden Administration?
Apr 17, 11:37 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM
57.27%chance
6271
OptionVotes
1158
864
Will these Google/Microsoft Products will rebrand/deprecated/discontinued (In 2039 or less)?
Sep 23, 12:52 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
6161
OptionProbability
69
65
65
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
27
Will Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?
May 13, 4:12 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
12%chance
298
OptionVotes
176
85
OptionVotes
95
53