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Top stories

US Consumer Confidence Dips to 97.4 but Tops Forecasts

US Consumer Confidence Dips to 97.4 but Tops Forecasts

Authors

9

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Expectations

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38121725

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

all other cuases

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

22

21

19

18

15

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3140

335

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

80%chance

4625903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3882

2007

Will NVDA's stock price move more than expected in 2025?

Jan 2, 3:53 PMDec 20, 4:59 AM

46.47%chance

2514930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

932

Will US life expectancy in 2050 be 100 or above?

Oct 31, 5:55 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.19%chance

6812888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

894

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7894

5344

Smoking less deadly: will the life expectancy penalty for smokers decrease by 2030?

Sep 1, 5:33 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

34.85%chance

123428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

731

Will life expectancy in any state of the US reach 85 years before end of 2035?

Apr 29, 5:27 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

36.59%chance

16721

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

760

Will Bryan Johnson die with age 10+ years greater than the life expectancy for the time of his death?

Jan 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

55.79%chance

9580

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1123

890

Will life expectancy in any province of Spain reach 90 years before end of 2040?

Feb 22, 9:43 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

36.77%chance

7575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Will life expectancy in any Italian province achieve 90 years before end of 2040?

Mar 6, 10:33 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

56.82%chance

5205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

872

Will life expectancy in any prefectures of Japan reach 90 years before end of 2040?

May 30, 12:31 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

54.5%chance

3105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

914

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
Economics
Business
US Consumer Confidence Dips to 97.4 but Tops Forecasts
Authors
9
3 months ago

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