Feels So Good News
Prediction markets for Feels So Good
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
44.44%chance
15835470
OptionVotes
1721
1121
[MANA BOUNTY + USD BOUNTY] Will Manifold help me land a role I'm happy with by EOY 2025?
Jul 5, 12:41 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
20.52%chance
3412373
OptionVotes
19679
5082
If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
Feb 24, 12:52 AMJan 1, 12:57 AM
44.56%chance
477663
OptionVotes
1024
957
If @Celene takes estrogen, will she consider it to have a positive effect, neutral effect, or negative effect?
Jan 12, 4:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
73.52%chance
356535
OptionVotes
1067
965
OptionVotes
1046
956
If I join manifold.love, will I feel it had good rather than bad results?
Jan 2, 8:47 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
66.09%chance
131736
OptionVotes
10748
8167
By 2028, will I think DeepMind has been net-good for the world?
Dec 2, 8:32 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM
38.66%chance
251521
OptionVotes
1156
871
Will I send my autoimmune disease (Hashimoto’s) into remission through diet and lifestyle changes alone?
May 16, 12:24 AMSep 23, 12:02 AM
37.78%chance
11875
OptionVotes
1283
779
Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?
Feb 4, 3:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
27.05%chance
12791
OptionVotes
1642
609
Will I have a reliable automated home cleaner by 2028?
Sep 29, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM
46.35%chance
25776
OptionVotes
1162
753
OptionVotes
1038
977
Will the sex difference in the general factor of anxiety be of the same magnitude as the sex difference in anxiety?
Mar 25, 8:59 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
73.72%chance
12240
OptionVotes
1081
955