Figure AI News

YES

2025 Jan - 2027 Jan

2027 Jan - 2030 Jan

2030 Jan or later

NO

NO

He will resolves this market for being a CEO of the AGI company, not for being the well recognized AGI creator

He will be male

He will be a citizen of the USA

As of May 2024 he is already a well-known figure in AI

He will be Jewish

AGI will manifest itself from a collection of open-source projects and nobody will really understand 'which human' created it.

He will be balding

He will have attended a Manifest

He will be 30-years-old or younger

He will be transgender

8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year

2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later

7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months

1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later

3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later

6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year

9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years

4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later

Other

Digit- Agility Robotics

Tesla-Optimus

Boston Dynamics - Atlas

2050

2040

NO

YES

NO

Below 0.6

0.6 - 0.7

0.7 - 0.8

0.80 - 0.9

0.90 - 1.0