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Prediction markets for Figure
Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
Feb 22, 1:03 PMFeb 23, 4:59 AM
69%chance
159139989
OptionVotes
1698
1437
OptionProbability
49
30
20
1
Will someone figure out what my (now deceased) hostile wooden cube was for?
Mar 9, 10:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
8.88%chance
8111156
OptionVotes
2354
753
Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?
Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
51.47%chance
605883
OptionVotes
1030
971
OptionVotes
1492
670
OptionVotes
3079
325
Will a benevolent AI create or appoint a human messianic figure within the timeframe of closing + 5yrs?
Nov 9, 2:06 AMDec 26, 5:59 AM
72.12%chance
202561
OptionVotes
1105
860
Will there exist a scholarly consensus in the year 3000 affirming the existence of Jesus as a historical figure?
Jul 28, 12:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
75.75%chance
311934
OptionVotes
1054
967
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky use AGI to figure out why he was wrong?
Jan 23, 3:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
28.61%chance
201587
OptionVotes
1112
920
Public figure comes out as a living performance art project before 2030
May 28, 1:35 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM
47.58%chance
211069
OptionVotes
1276
435
OptionVotes
1413
874
The Ministry for the Future Predictions: Will a Drone Swarm Assassinate a Public Figure by 2040?
Feb 8, 12:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
73.63%chance
16494
OptionVotes
1335
774
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