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Top stories

US Appeals Court Strikes Down Pennsylvania Mail-Ballot Date Rule

US Appeals Court Strikes Down Pennsylvania Mail-Ballot Date Rule

Authors

13

7 months ago

Prediction markets for First

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2058388

OptionProbability

Other

Matt Giacona

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Trump not elected President

44

36

19

1

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7757085

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

80

16

4

0

0

0

0

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3%chance

10431813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11415

1071

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.89%chance

17425268

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11948

9070

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

21.37%chance

3715435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19178

5218

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

3.37%chance

3514386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5497

530

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

49.93%chance

199346

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10014

9986

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

444082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.76%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

926

When will a humanoid robot first be used as farm labor?

Nov 11, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

Which ends first

Dec 22, 6:21 PMJan 23, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

LeBron’s NBA (playing) career

Steelers’ non-losing season streak

50

50

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 26, 2025
Aug 26, 2025
US Elections
US Judiciary
Politics
US Appeals Court Strikes Down Pennsylvania Mail-Ballot Date Rule
Authors
13
7 months ago

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