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Prediction markets for First

Trump impose large tariffs in first year?

Oct 18, 11:16 PMApr 2, 6:59 AM

99.57%chance

16091897885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243417

3324

Will the poverty rate in Argentina be lower in the first half of 2025 compared to the second half of 2023?

Jan 22, 5:32 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

98%chance

3888962

OptionVotes

NO

YES

56547

786

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.3%chance

17224053

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14849

8064

Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.23%chance

9821603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4277

1477

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.82%chance

296204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14631

6838

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

7%chance

314343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3127

650

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32925

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

When will the Yudkowsky $150,000 UFO market first stay at ≥95% for a week?

Jan 4, 10:25 PMJul 20, 4:59 AM

9518

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2026

2025

Never/later

36

31

19

10

4

What % Change will RKLB (Rocketlab) Stock Value Have After NEUTRON Launches for the first time?

Dec 20, 3:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.24%chance

3507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5351

4368

Will I pass CFA Level 1 exam first attempt?

Jul 27, 6:09 PMApr 2, 5:04 PM

64.17%chance

8357

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1338

747

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.76%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

926

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