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Lebanon Says Diplomacy Kept It Out of Israel–Iran Escalation

2 days ago

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.1%chance

8225584

OptionVotes

YES

4756

624

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

27.54%chance

889591

OptionVotes

YES

1834

449

Which AI future will we get?

May 1, 7:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

776891

OptionProbability

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Is Nvidia a bubble? (Fixed version)

Mar 8, 7:30 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM

12.86%chance

222859

OptionVotes

YES

1737

817

[Glimt] Will Russian gas supplies resume through the Nord Stream pipelines in 2025?

Jan 16, 7:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.68%chance

101762

OptionVotes

YES

2512

398

Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

May 7, 5:35 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

16.29%chance

16705

OptionVotes

YES

1210

933

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

8.28%chance

10635

OptionVotes

YES

731

160

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Mar 24, 2:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

7264

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Jun 1, 6:48 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

51.73%chance

6158

OptionVotes

YES

105

Which upcoming family movie will perform best across reviews and box office?

May 13, 1:42 AMOct 2, 1:35 AM

6152

OptionProbability

How to Train Your Dragon

Lilo & Stitch

Elio

Karate Kid: Legends

The Bad Guys 2

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

79.39%chance

782

OptionVotes

YES

137

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

122

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Jul 31, 2025
Jul 31, 2025
Lebanon
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Lebanon Says Diplomacy Kept It Out of Israel–Iran Escalation
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2 days ago

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Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Which AI future will we get?

Is Nvidia a bubble? (Fixed version)

[Glimt] Will Russian gas supplies resume through the Nord Stream pipelines in 2025?

Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?

Which upcoming family movie will perform best across reviews and box office?

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

Latest stories

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