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Prediction markets for Five Points
Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?
Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM
3.1%chance
8225584
OptionVotes
4756
624
In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?
Mar 8, 1:23 PMMar 9, 4:59 AM
27.54%chance
889591
OptionVotes
1834
449
OptionProbability
32
21
21
15
12
OptionVotes
1737
817
[Glimt] Will Russian gas supplies resume through the Nord Stream pipelines in 2025?
Jan 16, 7:03 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
13.68%chance
101762
OptionVotes
2512
398
Will Climate Manipulating Weapons be Used in the Russian / Ukraine Conflict?
May 7, 5:35 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
16.29%chance
16705
OptionVotes
1210
933
Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?
Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM
8.28%chance
10635
OptionVotes
731
160
[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script
Mar 24, 2:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
7264
OptionProbability
66
49
30
14
5
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2026?
Jun 1, 6:48 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
51.73%chance
6158
OptionVotes
105
67
Which upcoming family movie will perform best across reviews and box office?
May 13, 1:42 AMOct 2, 1:35 AM
6152
OptionProbability
66
20
5
5
5
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?
Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
81.62%chance
587
OptionVotes
196
74
Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2030?
Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
79.39%chance
782
OptionVotes
137
36