Footnotes News

4 days ago

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM

4%chance

6936642

OptionVotes

YES

3564

752

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

51.75%chance

4910166

OptionVotes

YES

1052

911

10 technologies that might exist in 5 years

Feb 5, 5:11 PMFeb 2, 10:59 PM

214387

OptionProbability

Test that tells you why you're sick (COVID vs flu vs strep throat vs cold)

Hep C vaccine

Stroke reducing drug that most patients can take

Malaria monoclonal antibody

TB vaccine that works in adults

Strep A vaccine

Bugs that stop malaria spreading (including rural)

Heb B complete cure

Programmable drugs before a future pandemic

Syphilis vaccine

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

Mar 3, 1:31 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM

40.58%chance

542883

OptionVotes

YES

1203

370

Will "Across Protocol" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?

Dec 11, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.94%chance

62363

OptionVotes

YES

287

113

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2026?

Mar 4, 10:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.4%chance

161039

OptionVotes

YES

1861

537

Will China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?

Apr 4, 11:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75%chance

8811

OptionVotes

YES

225

120

Will "Sudoswap" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?

Dec 11, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.84%chance

5229

OptionVotes

YES

210

Will "Soulbound Tokens" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?

Dec 11, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.93%chance

6152

OptionVotes

YES

158

110

Will fewer than 1/3 of these crypto projects be widely considered to be scams by 2030?

Dec 11, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.74%chance

2120

OptionVotes

YES

190

Will Mauro Cid lose the benefits of his delação premiada (plea bargain) before 2026?

Nov 20, 5:01 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

30%chance

255

OptionVotes

YES

153

Does the MEGA Drive work?

Jun 10, 12:44 AMMay 15, 11:59 AM

45.39%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

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Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

10 technologies that might exist in 5 years

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

Will "Across Protocol" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2026?

Will China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?

Will "Sudoswap" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?

Will "Soulbound Tokens" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?

Will fewer than 1/3 of these crypto projects be widely considered to be scams by 2030?

Will Mauro Cid lose the benefits of his delação premiada (plea bargain) before 2026?

Does the MEGA Drive work?

Latest stories

Join our channels

WhatsApp

Telegram