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Prediction markets for Footnotes
Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?
Jul 5, 9:39 PMJul 5, 9:59 PM
4%chance
6936642
OptionVotes
3564
752
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
51.75%chance
4910166
OptionVotes
1052
911
OptionProbability
99
64
51
33
31
24
21
19
13
10
Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?
Mar 3, 1:31 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM
40.58%chance
542883
OptionVotes
1203
370
Will "Across Protocol" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?
Dec 11, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.94%chance
62363
OptionVotes
287
113
Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2026?
Mar 4, 10:02 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
22.4%chance
161039
OptionVotes
1861
537
OptionVotes
225
120
Will "Sudoswap" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?
Dec 11, 4:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
14.84%chance
5229
OptionVotes
210
74
Will "Soulbound Tokens" be widely considered to be a scam by 2030?
Dec 11, 4:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
21.93%chance
6152
OptionVotes
158
110
Will fewer than 1/3 of these crypto projects be widely considered to be scams by 2030?
Dec 11, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
91.74%chance
2120
OptionVotes
190
35
Will Mauro Cid lose the benefits of his delação premiada (plea bargain) before 2026?
Nov 20, 5:01 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM
30%chance
255
OptionVotes
153
65
OptionVotes
110
91