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Forte News

    Prediction markets for Forte

    Will Portal 3, Team Fortress 3, or Half-Life 3 come out before 2033?

    Jun 28, 4:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    74.12%chance
    466279

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1236

    896

    Is this either Luffy or Quagmire? (Fortnite trailer speculation)

    Mar 16, 6:57 AMNov 28, 4:59 AM
    22.23%chance
    433196

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1400

    840

    OptionProbability

    2028+ / never happening

    Apr-Jun 2027

    Jul-Sep 2027

    Oct-Dec 2027

    Jan-Mar 2027

    Nov-Dec 2026

    25

    20

    20

    20

    11

    3

    If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?

    Dec 30, 11:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    251890

    OptionProbability

    Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuchang campus

    Wuhan CDC

    Wuhan Institute of Virology, Jiangxia campus

    Fort Detrick

    Wuhan Institute of Biological Products

    UNC

    Wuhan University

    Huazhong Agricultural University in Wuhan

    VECTOR lab in Russia

    Other

    Canadian National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg, Manitoba

    50

    9

    8

    7

    6

    5

    4

    4

    3

    3

    2

    OptionProbability

    Abed will say "cool…cool cool cool"

    Jeff will give an inspirational speech

    🎵 Troy and Abed (something something) 🎵 (eg. in the morning)

    Inspector Spacetime will be referenced

    Starburns will feature

    Professor Duncan will feature

    Britta will be called "the worst"

    Garrett will feature

    "Britta" will be used as a verb

    "Six seasons and a movie" will be mentioned

    Magnitude will feature

    (Fat) Neil will feature

    Frankie will feature

    Troy's AC/Plumbing story will be referenced

    Hickey will feature

    Someone will shoot a paintball gun

    Elroy will feature

    Dungeons and Dragons will be played

    There will be a pillow/blanket fort

    Abed will wear a cape

    Annie's Boobs (the monkey) will feature

    Pierce will feature

    It will be released in 2024

    93

    91

    81

    79

    71

    70

    65

    62

    62

    61

    59

    56

    52

    50

    48

    44

    39

    37

    36

    34

    23

    17

    0

    OptionProbability

    Austin, Texas

    Houston, TX

    San Antonio, TX

    Fort Worth, TX

    Phoenix, AZ

    Dallas, TX

    Charlotte, NC

    NYC, NY

    Seattle, WA

    Atlanta, Georgia

    Minneapolis, Minnesota

    Denver, CO

    Boston, MA

    Detroit, Michigan

    Los Angeles, CA

    Miami, FL

    Washington, DC

    San Jose, CA

    San Diego, CA

    Columbus, OH

    San Francisco, CA

    Chicago, IL

    Port St. Lucie, FL

    Huntsville, Alabama

    Boise, ID

    Albuquerque, NM

    Fort Myers, Florida

    Berkeley, CA

    Philadelphia, PA

    Cleveland, OH

    St Louis, MO

    Salt Lake City, UT

    Tallahassee, Florida

    72

    67

    67

    67

    62

    60

    46

    26

    20

    16

    16

    16

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    14

    11

    10

    10

    9

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    OptionProbability

    Manifest (June, Berkeley)

    A Manifold-sponsored meetup that’s not Manifest

    Any event outside of the USA

    Predict2026 (December, New York)

    (Another) Gondor NYC meetup.

    PREDICT (October, NYC)

    NEXTPredict (October, NYC)

    Prediction Market Conference (November, Las Vegas)

    SBC (June, Fort Lauderdale)

    100

    100

    100

    95

    75

    50

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    Breckenhaus

    Breckaplex

    Breckenmortar

    Red Nest

    Fruella de Villa

    Breckabin

    Skiboot-a-terre

    Red Rooster

    Casabrecka

    Breckenball

    Fort Buttress the Butt Fortress

    Breckabode

    Red Feather (the street name)

    Big Breck Frandy Mountain House

    The G-Spot

    The Handsome Hiney House

    The Rowdy Rationalussy Residence

    Other

    Bunkenridge

    Brecklamation

    Galfransisco

    The Roost

    20

    15

    10

    9

    8

    8

    6

    6

    5

    4

    4

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Will Gabe Newell be alive on the day Team Fortress 3 releases?

    Mar 24, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    43.92%chance
    13315

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1058

    948

    Will Fort Hood be renamed again by the end of 2029?

    Jun 10, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    33.78%chance
    444

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    140

    71

    OptionProbability

    Washington D.C.

    New York City

    Los Angeles

    San Francisco

    Chicago

    Houston

    Phoenix

    Philadelphia

    San Antonio

    San Diego

    Dallas

    San Jose

    Austin

    Jacksonville

    Fort Worth

    Columbus

    Indianapolis

    Charlotte

    Seattle

    Denver

    Boston

    Detroit

    Other

    12

    10

    7

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    Will Fort Bragg be renamed again by the end of 2029?

    Jun 10, 11:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    43.06%chance
    215

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    115

    87

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