OptionProbability
Gunplay
On screen fatalities
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
London will appear on screen
World capital other than London appears on screen
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Blue-eyed Bond
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Bond flys an aircraft
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Skydiving
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
Bond commits arson
Bond receives a gunshot wound
Oral sex
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
The title will refer to life and/or death
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond plays poker
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Wilhelm scream
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
Jetpack
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Orgy
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
Mexico is shown on screen
Cryptocurrency is referenced
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
A hamburger appears on screen
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Bond goes to space
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
Pirates
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Bond plays Russian roulette
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
It will be directed by a woman
Bond dies
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
The fourth wall is broken
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond is vegan
Released in 2026
Bond hits the griddy
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91
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85
85
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77
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65
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4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
2h marathon has been officially broken by a human
Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans
New Pope after Francis
three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved
Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point
Taylor Swift has been married
Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons
Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point
ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)
S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)
Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks
Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again
USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)
True Detective Season 5 released
xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month
Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter
publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably
Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport
Destiny is still regularly livestreaming
No humans on the moon since Apollo
Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube
Xi still leader of China
Kingdom Hearts 4 has released
Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use
Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks
Putin still leader of Russia
Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta
Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan
Palworld is still able to be played through Steam
the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)
@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username
a twitter account has reached 500M followers
Charles still King of UK
Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates
One Piece manga is still going (original series)
The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen
Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )
At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business
Winner of 2028 election is Democrat
George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)
Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling
Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
Nintendo still manufacturing Switch
Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online
The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units
Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once
Family Guy has ended
Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo
the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)
Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison
prong.studio still operational and selling products
Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)
Kojima's Physint game has released
Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time
Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill
Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic
there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)
Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)
Petco will have filed for bankruptcy
Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions
Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close
A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)
at least one spider man movie releases each year
1200 or more official pokemon
Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month
Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)
Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still
Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)
Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer
Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician
The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)
A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015
jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one
Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing
X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)
Amazon #1 book is a self-help book
A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017
I'll be dead.
Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought
NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere
Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already
Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)
China - Taiwan war / invasion begins
Dwarf Fortress ceases active development
doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight
All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving
There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry
Taylor Swift has been divorced
a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons
Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom
At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power
China has landed a human on the moon
Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)
Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use
a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated
someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating
The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)
Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States
JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States
Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)
Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States
Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States
No humans exist
Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events
Jimmy Carter is still alive
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
95
94
93
91
89
86
85
84
82
82
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80
79
74
73
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72
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63
59
57
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23
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20
20
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19
18
18
17
16
15
14
13
10
10
8
7
5
4
2
2
1
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1500
629
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1400
840
OptionVotes
YES
NO
644
16
OptionProbability
American Dad
Simpsons
Among Us
One Piece
Five Nights at Freddys
Shovel Knight
Roblox
Frozen (Disney)
Hunger Games
Minecraft
Pokemon
Yu Gi Oh
From Software (elden ring, dark souls, etc)
Undertale
Team Fortress / Half Life (Valve properties)
Magic: the Gathering
Doctor Who
Raid Shadow Legends
Palworld
Life is Strange
Dora the Explorer
Sesame Street
Homestuck
Nintendo (non-pokemon)
ASDFMovie
100
100
100
91
90
50
50
50
50
43
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
31
30
20
17
16
15
12
10
OptionProbability
Other
2029
2028
2026
2027
83
8
6
2
2
OptionProbability
Other
2028
2029
2030
2031
2027
2026
2025
34
14
14
14
13
10
1
1
OptionProbability
Fortnite (2017)
Paw Patrol (2013)
Demon Slayer (2016)
Candy Crush (2012)
Minions / Despicable Me (2010)
Genshin Impact (2020)
Angry Birds (2009)
Marvel Cinematic Universe (2008)
Five Nights at Freddys
Avatar (2009)
Frozen (Disney) (2013)
DC Extended Universe (2013)
Frozen (2013)
Hazbin Hotel
Cars (2006)
Yo-kai Watch (2013)
Palworld (2024)
Conjuring Universe (2013)
87
79
76
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
41
41
36
35
24
24
24
OptionVotes
YES
NO
290
93
OptionVotes
YES
NO
215
122
OptionVotes
NO
YES
108
76

