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Prediction markets for Framework Computer
When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)
Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
118675
OptionProbability
68
59
45
0
Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?
May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM
52.8%chance
365530
OptionVotes
4821
4192
Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?
Jan 2, 12:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
61%chance
442537
OptionVotes
1163
849
What is the main reason behind GPT-4o speed improvement relative to GPT-4 base model?
May 14, 12:17 PMJul 21, 9:59 PM
251944
OptionProbability
82
74
40
23
6
Will a neurotech company face a lawsuit over unauthorized brain data collection in 2025?
Mar 8, 11:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
16.58%chance
91361
OptionVotes
2243
446
Will "Toward A Mathematical Framework for Computati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Mar 1, 12:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
45.8%chance
9238
OptionVotes
152
101
Will pytorch be most used autodiff framework as of the end of 2026?
Dec 18, 8:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
83.02%chance
6133
OptionVotes
257
109
OptionVotes
194
165
Before 2043, will a leading-edge process node feature a new transistor design fewer than 10 years after its invention?
Jun 5, 10:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
56.97%chance
250
OptionVotes
106
73
Will OpenAI implement any of the reform recommendations from The OpenAI Files by end of 2025?
Jun 19, 8:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
48.13%chance
333
OptionVotes
104
96
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