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Prediction markets for Friends
OptionVotes
441
23
Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?
Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM
37.37%chance
162923
OptionVotes
1295
772
Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?
Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
11.85%chance
252166
OptionVotes
2741
368
Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?
May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.19%chance
101275
OptionVotes
2275
440
Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍♂️🤝💻
Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
67.81%chance
351265
OptionVotes
1083
932
Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?
Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15%chance
15782
OptionVotes
1675
819
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
70.99%chance
11473
OptionVotes
1025
893
Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, claim to have lost a friend due to denied claim or similar?
Dec 6, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
14.67%chance
11279
OptionVotes
241
41
OptionVotes
1253
798
OptionProbability
40
26
16
9
9
OptionVotes
124
80
Will "Relitigating the Race to Build Friendly AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jul 25, 3:27 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000