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Top stories

‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose

‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose

Authors

54

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Friends

Which member of our friend group will get married first?

Nov 16, 11:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

235281

OptionProbability

@hannah (mop 2023)

@theatypicallylargeL (balloon boy)

@astyerche (laughs at his own jokes)

@AlexCao (terrorist)

@cc6 (likes math, chess, speedcubing, and minecraft)

@potatopenguin (social guy)

@AaronCho (chojan horse)

27

21

12

11

10

10

8

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

59.78%chance

142376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1219

820

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

18.21%chance

221742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2130

474

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.81%chance

351265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1083

932

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.61%chance

101025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2025

494

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will the killer of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO, claim to have lost a friend due to denied claim or similar?

Dec 6, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.67%chance

11279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

41

Will my friend M accept that he doesn´t annoy me?

Apr 15, 6:07 PMDec 31, 7:06 PM

39.38%chance

3256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

806

Will two of my friends break up by the end of the semester?

Jan 20, 9:45 AMJul 2, 11:59 PM

51%chance

3139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

will my friend successfully pull an all nighter

May 7, 7:57 AMMay 8, 7:57 AM

42.46%chance

663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

USMNT vs Senegal - May 31st Friendly

Apr 20, 6:54 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

15

OptionProbability

USMNT wins

Senegal wins

Draw

39

31

31

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