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Top stories

‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose

‘Ketamine Queen’ Jasveen Sangha Pleads Guilty in Matthew Perry Overdose

Authors

54

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Friends

Will the Friend Wearable AI sell more than 100k units by end of 2025?

Jul 31, 6:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.44%chance

487784

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4637

216

Will the Friend Wearable AI sell more than 10k units by end of 2025?

Jul 31, 6:06 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.5%chance

535561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1911

523

Will our friend J. get a 6-pack by his wedding in 14 months?

Aug 7, 5:04 PMOct 31, 5:01 PM

71.43%chance

92016

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1581

632

Will there be an AI Companion app (friend, girlfriend, partner etc.) with 500 Million users before 2035? 🤖❤🧍‍♂️🤝💻

Apr 13, 4:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

67.01%chance

341240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

944

Will I gain a new close friend within 5 years?

Jul 1, 11:35 AMJul 8, 8:59 PM

75.49%chance

181057

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1755

570

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15%chance

15782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

819

Before 2027, will I enjoy playing Minecraft w/ an AI while voice calling comparably to playing over call with a friend?

Dec 19, 6:28 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.89%chance

13698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1428

700

If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?

Feb 3, 4:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

11473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1025

893

Will my friend deid91 have success on Twitch by 2027?

May 18, 11:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.47%chance

7410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

709

Friendly match between Russia and Argentina by EOY 2025?

Jul 5, 3:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.97%chance

895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

Friends of the Earth’s Thailand chapter to campaign against Kok river pollution by end of 2025?

Jul 14, 2:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.8%chance

348

OptionVotes

NO

YES

115

87

Will my friend Deepta have at least one child by the end of 2029?

Oct 19, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.92%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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