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Top stories

Meta Opens $1B Kansas City Hub as AI Data Center Race Heats Up

Meta Opens $1B Kansas City Hub as AI Data Center Race Heats Up

Authors

18

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Frontier

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15025

6656

Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?

Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

24.05%chance

587915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5483

2860

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Mar 24, 2:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

185405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10000

10000

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Nov 18, 8:23 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

95.69%chance

235289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4731

213

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

65.34%chance

433577

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

728

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.84%chance

11975

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

699

Any American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?

Feb 25, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.65%chance

24867

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1144

979

Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?

Sep 20, 10:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.22%chance

8728

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

796

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.96%chance

5355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

816

Before 2029, will OpenAI provide API access to a frontier LLM with 100,000,000+ context length?

Aug 12, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.92%chance

4194

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

979

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.4%chance

5142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

879

Latest stories

Latest stories

Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Economics
Business
Tech
Meta Opens $1B Kansas City Hub as AI Data Center Race Heats Up
Authors
18
1 year ago

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