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Top stories

Nissan Shuts Historic Civac Plant, Shifts Mexican Output to Aguascalientes

Authors

6

4 days ago

Prediction markets for Frontier

When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights?

Nov 16, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1297277

OptionProbability

Other

Q4 2025

Q3 2025

Q2 2025

Q1 2024

Q4 2023

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

Q1 2025

44

24

22

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

35%chance

9025799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?

Feb 5, 5:38 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

32.64%chance

293276

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1436

696

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

302531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?

Mar 25, 1:21 PMMar 23, 11:59 PM

48.27%chance

192251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?

Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.72%chance

10931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1502

666

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Mar 1, 8:40 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.19%chance

10810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1195

837

Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?

Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.35%chance

8758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1373

728

Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?

Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.02%chance

20553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1211

711

Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?

Jun 5, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.28%chance

7469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

56.51%chance

4140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?

Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.69%chance

390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

994

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 30, 2025
Jul 30, 2025
Mexico
Automobile
Business
Nissan Shuts Historic Civac Plant, Shifts Mexican Output to Aguascalientes
Authors
6
4 days ago

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