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Prediction markets for Frontier
When will Frontier Airlines first offer transatlantic flights?
Nov 16, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
1297277
OptionProbability
44
24
22
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?
Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
35%chance
9025799
OptionVotes
1363
734
will a paper released in 2025 by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
Feb 5, 5:38 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM
32.64%chance
293276
OptionVotes
1436
696
Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?
May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM
44.8%chance
302531
OptionVotes
1110
901
OptionVotes
1035
966
Will a LLM trained with FP4 have frontier-level performance before 2028?
Feb 19, 9:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
30.72%chance
10931
OptionVotes
1502
666
OptionVotes
1195
837
Before 2026, will frontier AI models get much better at expressing calibrated uncertainty in their answers?
Feb 6, 12:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.35%chance
8758
OptionVotes
1373
728
Will the US require a license to develop frontier AI models by 2028?
Apr 28, 1:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
50.02%chance
20553
OptionVotes
1211
711
Before 2028, will there be enough inference capacity to generate 30T frontier model tokens per day?
Jun 5, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
40.28%chance
7469
OptionVotes
1218
821
Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?
Nov 19, 2:42 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM
56.51%chance
4140
OptionVotes
1140
877
Before 2027, will an AI product from an American frontier lab readily identify Fetal Alcohol Syndrome in faces?
Sep 15, 11:02 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
49.69%chance
390
OptionVotes
1006
994
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