OptionVotes
YES
NO
917
11
OptionProbability
2026
2027
2025
2028 or later or never
2024
78
9
6
2
1369
832
A Starship upper stage is caught by the launch tower.
Two Starships complete a ship-to-ship propellant transfer in orbit; intra-vehicle transfers don't count.
Artemis III launches: SLS/Orion with crew lifts off.
Orion docks with a commercial lunar lander during Artemis III, confirmed by NASA. Rendezvous without docking doesn't count.
China's Xuntian space telescope launches.
Tianwen-2's sample capsule is recovered on Earth.
Vast's Haven-1 launches.
ISRO flies a Gaganyaan orbital mission (crewed or uncrewed): launch must occur in 2027.
Blue Moon MK1 lands successfully on the Moon: Blue Origin confirms a soft landing.
China's Chang'e-7 lands successfully on the Moon.
Humans fly aboard a Starship: any crewed Starship flight reaching space.
85
65
61
57
50
48
44
21
