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Prediction markets for Game Informer
OptionVotes
4106
339
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
Jul 13, 11:37 AMJan 2, 12:30 PM
47.67%chance
8713481
OptionVotes
1050
916
Will sports betting be significantly restricted in the U.S. by 2030?
Apr 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
29.59%chance
913193
OptionVotes
15073
7129
OptionVotes
992
937
OptionProbability
53
48
43
41
34
24
I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?
Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
20.49%chance
716636
OptionVotes
1742
1335
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2026?
Jan 21, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
32.17%chance
212448
OptionVotes
1452
689
OptionVotes
2764
576
Which of the ICML 2023 Outstanding Paper award winners will have the most citations at the end of 2025?
Aug 4, 7:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
81076
OptionProbability
95
1
1
1
1
1
Before 2026, a publicly available AI system highly reliably screens videos of chess games for touch move violations?
Jun 27, 9:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
40.37%chance
11907
OptionVotes
1215
823
Will there be a leak of military secrets or sensitive information on the War Thunder game forums in 2026?
Jun 23, 8:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
82.82%chance
9350
OptionVotes
220
46
Will the video game Sanctuary release (on Steam) before 1st Jan 2026?
May 9, 11:56 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM
78.31%chance
252
OptionVotes
115
46
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