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Top stories

Google, Kairos Power, TVA to Build Tennessee Nuclear Reactor by 2030; Gemini AI Cuts Energy Use 33x to 0.24 Wh per Prompt

Google, Kairos Power, TVA to Build Tennessee Nuclear Reactor by 2030; Gemini AI Cuts Energy Use 33x to 0.24 Wh per Prompt

Authors

31

1 year ago

OpenAI Expands to India; Meta Signs $10B Google Cloud Deal, Hires Apple Exec; Musk Advances Grok 5 AI; Nuro Gets $203M Funding

OpenAI Expands to India; Meta Signs $10B Google Cloud Deal, Hires Apple Exec; Musk Advances Grok 5 AI; Nuro Gets $203M Funding

Authors

6

1 year ago

Google Expands NotebookLM Video Overviews to 80 Languages

Google Expands NotebookLM Video Overviews to 80 Languages

Authors

11

1 year ago

Google Launches Gemini-Powered Text-to-Audio Feature in Google Docs With Custom Voices and New API Tools

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Gemini AI

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

24.4%chance

11515870

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2039

595

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.6%chance

275531

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3264

307

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

Jun 10, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41215

OptionProbability

80% to 90%

60% to 70%

70% to 80%

90% or more

50% to 60%

40% to 50%

Less than 40%

34

21

17

15

9

3

2

Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military by EOY 2026?

Feb 27, 11:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.33%chance

20862

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.43%chance

11712

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

776

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4680

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

2

1

1

1

1

1

In a month, will Gemini 2.5 Pro in AI village fall into delusions again?

Jul 19, 5:03 PMAug 19, 3:27 PM

36.77%chance

14340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

76

Will the next major AI model (GPT-5, Gemini 2.0, etc.) be able to correctly predict this market's resolution?

Dec 14, 12:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.91%chance

8249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

163

89

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6204

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

70

51

30

24

22

Google AI Pro/Ultra usable in third party apps before 2027?

May 16, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.61%chance

545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

74

Will at least one major LLM publicly document graph-based RAG as a core part of its production architecture in 2026?

Jan 20, 10:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Generation Starship By 2150

Jul 4, 1:37 PMJul 31, 6:30 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5600

5600

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