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Top stories

Google, Kairos Power, TVA to Build Tennessee Nuclear Reactor by 2030; Gemini AI Cuts Energy Use 33x to 0.24 Wh per Prompt

Google, Kairos Power, TVA to Build Tennessee Nuclear Reactor by 2030; Gemini AI Cuts Energy Use 33x to 0.24 Wh per Prompt

Authors

31

4 months ago

OpenAI Expands to India; Meta Signs $10B Google Cloud Deal, Hires Apple Exec; Musk Advances Grok 5 AI; Nuro Gets $203M Funding

OpenAI Expands to India; Meta Signs $10B Google Cloud Deal, Hires Apple Exec; Musk Advances Grok 5 AI; Nuro Gets $203M Funding

Authors

6

4 months ago

Google Expands NotebookLM Video Overviews to 80 Languages

Google Expands NotebookLM Video Overviews to 80 Languages

Authors

11

3 months ago

Google Launches Gemini-Powered Text-to-Audio Feature in Google Docs With Custom Voices and New API Tools

Authors

8

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Gemini AI

Will an AI score over 80% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025

Nov 9, 1:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.39%chance

115126166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5855

709

Will a Chinese-made AI beat o3's December score on Frontier Math by the end of 2025?

Dec 23, 1:32 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

12%chance

10844457

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

369

Will a mainstream AI model pass the stick figure arrow name test in 2025?

Apr 12, 12:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.3%chance

14627602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2113

473

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

41.2%chance

10613529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1412

893

By the end of 2025 will general AIs like GPT-4o make better music than specialist AIs like Udio did in spring of 2024?

May 16, 4:43 AMJan 8, 7:59 AM

11.11%chance

397364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2602

186

Best public AI model uses "We" in CoT by EOY 2025?

Jun 1, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.68%chance

277050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

955

On Dec 31, 2025, will a widely available AI model be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?

Dec 28, 2:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.28%chance

266937

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2672

374

Which AI lab releases an LLM in December?

Nov 30, 1:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

284782

OptionProbability

Google DeepMind

DeepSeek

Alibaba Qwen

Mistral

OpenAI

xAI

Z.ai

Moonshot

Meta SuperIntelligence

Nvidia

Anthropic

100

100

100

100

94

54

44

28

19

19

18

Will a frontier model be delayed in the EU by 90+ days in 2025?

Aug 15, 1:29 PMMar 30, 10:59 PM

34.87%chance

6425

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

732

Will humans create a SOTA AI model without Multi-Layer Perceptrons by 2029?

May 4, 6:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.35%chance

10362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

954

Will 'From Keynes to the Machine Age' receive substantive critical engagement from qualified experts by 2026?

Oct 11, 4:16 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

39.02%chance

3250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

800

What LLM API will work unmodified until the end of 2025?

Mar 8, 2:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6115

OptionProbability

OpenAI Chat Completion API

Google Vertex AI Gemini

Mistral AI Chat Completion API

Google Gemini API

86

66

66

50

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