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Top stories

Google Launches Gemini-Powered Text-to-Audio Feature in Google Docs With Custom Voices and New API Tools

Google Launches Gemini-Powered Text-to-Audio Feature in Google Docs With Custom Voices and New API Tools

Authors

8

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Gemini API

Gemini 3 (Google) release (No Double Speak Version)

Nov 6, 9:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7169517

OptionProbability

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2025-12-15

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2025-11-21

Before 2025-11-14

Before 2025-11-10

83

78

76

75

0

0

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.51%chance

9858808

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144853

69696

Grok 5 (xAI) release date

Aug 8, 6:37 PMNov 1, 3:59 AM

7224338

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before September 2025

Before October 2025

Before November 2025

Before December 2025

Before 2026

Before February 2026

Before March 2026

Before April 2026

Before May 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

44

15

8

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date

Feb 2, 7:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5713040

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before March 2027

Before February 2027

Before December 2026

Before November 2026

Before October 2026

Before June 2026

Before July 2026

Before August 2026

Before September 2026

97

96

93

86

83

18

0

0

0

0

By when will Google add ads to Gemini?

Dec 8, 7:05 PMDec 8, 6:54 PM

2412173

OptionProbability

By Jan 1, 2028

By Jan 1, 2027

By Dec 1, 2026

By Nov 1, 2026

By Oct 1, 2026

By Sep 1, 2026

By Aug 1, 2026

By Jan 1, 2026

By Feb 1, 2026

By Mar 1, 2026

By Apr 1, 2026

By May 1, 2026

By Jun 1, 2026

By Jul 1, 2026

42

14

12

10

7

4

3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Gemini 3.8+ Flash (Google) release date

Aug 31, 2:57 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

175700

OptionProbability

Before 2026-09-11

Before 2026-09-21

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-10-11

Before 2026-10-21

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-12-01

99

99

99

99

99

99

99

Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?

Aug 17, 5:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.57%chance

151707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1621

617

Will Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?

Aug 16, 2:22 AMOct 1, 12:00 AM

7.04%chance

13861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

366

45

[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA

Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2575

OptionProbability

Below $0.10

$0.10 - $0.49

$0.50 - $0.99

$1.00 - $2.99

$3.00 - $5.99

$6.00 - $9.99

$10.00+

95

1

1

1

1

1

1

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6210

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

61

51

30

24

22

Will Google release a higher-quality successor to Nano Banana Pro before November?

Aug 29, 4:48 PMOct 31, 11:59 PM

54%chance

5127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

92

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMAug 20, 7:59 PM

68.73%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

97

Latest stories

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Aug 20, 2025
Aug 20, 2025
Software
AI Products
Tech
Google Launches Gemini-Powered Text-to-Audio Feature in Google Docs With Custom Voices and New API Tools
Authors
8
1 year ago

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