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Prediction markets for Gemini API
OptionProbability
83
79
75
74
0
0
Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?
Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM
67%chance
8456997
OptionVotes
143166
70518
OptionProbability
80
69
33
25
20
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
69
48
39
35
33
30
21
14
6
6
4
0
0
0
OptionProbability
84
77
57
25
12
2
0
0
0
OptionProbability
86
82
79
60
42
35
31
29
17
8
Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?
Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
85.24%chance
142281
OptionVotes
2403
416
[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2030 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA
Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
4680
OptionProbability
95
2
1
1
1
1
1
[Carlini questions] Cost of a million output words in 2027 for an LLM that achieves at least current benchmark SOTA
Mar 24, 2:14 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
2575
OptionProbability
95
1
1
1
1
1
1
By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
Feb 2, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6469
OptionProbability
41
21
15
11
8
5
Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?
Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4111
OptionProbability
83
81
50
50
32
Will I be able to connect my Quickbooks online data to ChatGPT, Gemini, or Claude before 2027?
Jan 15, 2:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
56.96%chance
440
OptionVotes
115
87
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