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General Staff News

    Prediction markets for General Staff

    [ACX 2026] How many of these 15 top US executive branch officials will be out before 2027?

    Jan 7, 12:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    189435

    OptionProbability

    2

    3

    1

    4

    0

    5

    6 - 7

    8 - 9

    10 - 11

    12 - 15

    24

    21

    18

    11

    8

    6

    5

    3

    2

    1

    Greenland changes and development multi market, all due June 30 2028

    Jan 14, 9:47 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    244690

    OptionProbability

    GDP > 4b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

    Cabinet level current us official visits greenland

    Trump visits greenland

    GDP > 5b (3.85b in 2024) (for any year)

    Greenland has a positive annual migration rate (-4.9/1000 in 2024)

    Us has another military base at least 500 personnel

    Thule Air Force Base expands to over 3000 personnel at least part of the year, up from 600 now

    Google trends for Greenland, judged at each January, never exceeds the search volume of Jan 2025, USA up to and including 2028

    Greenland population is <80% ethnic greenlander (88% in 2025)

    Greenland citizens receive money or other financial benefits from us gov

    Greenland population falls below 40000

    Chinese national population of Greenland exceeds 200

    Greenland has 2 or more registered air flight carriers (1 in 2024)

    Greenland has a military

    20+ story building built

    Greenland significantly changes its flag

    Military conflict over Greenland at least 5 casualties involving two+ conflicting powers

    Gains nuclear power station. Excluding military vessels. Portable is okay

    Current Greenland political borders change so that another country has a piece of it

    USD is the used currency

    40+ story building built

    81

    80

    54

    39

    25

    23

    22

    21

    21

    20

    20

    20

    20

    20

    17

    16

    14

    14

    11

    10

    7

    Detroit LVT: Will the plan "fail spectacularly"? (2028)

    Oct 13, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    7.23%chance
    12700

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1543

    906

    Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

    Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
    67.68%chance
    11614

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    145

    69

    Will ICE cause an incident of note at the Olympics?

    Jan 29, 5:06 AMFeb 22, 11:59 PM
    28%chance
    21533

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    160

    62

    Will I be conscripted against my will into the British military by 2030?

    Jan 17, 4:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    4.68%chance
    6120

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    107

    100

    Which China pundits may eventually be found to be assets of the CCP?

    Jan 16, 9:41 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
    570

    OptionProbability

    Jeffrey Sachs

    Huey Li (and the news)

    SerpentZA

    Laowhy86

    Nicholas Kristof

    Michael Pettis

    Peter Hessler

    James Fallows

    Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business

    Liziqi

    Nathan Rich

    Living in China

    Jerry Kowal

    Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.

    Asia Society Policy Institute

    Yale Center Beijing

    Brookings Institution (China Center)

    Blondie in China

    Elon Musk

    Bill Bishop, Sinocism

    52

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    50

    41

    40

    Russia passed a new casualty milestone Ukraine claims

    Feb 20, 7:26 PM
    00

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