OptionProbability
January 20, 2029 (Whole term)
January 20, 2026 (First year)
January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)
February 20, 2025 (First month)
April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)
71
16
0
Covid
Russia-Ukraine War
Brexit
Israel-Hamas War
US Withdrawal from Afghanistan
January 6th
LLMs
George Floyd Protests
Bitcoin
The Rise of China
Private Spaceflight
Violent repression of women in Iran
New York v Trump 2024
Russia's takeover of the US political establishment
Tigray War
BRICS Expansion
Meme stocks
Enshittification
98
97
88
82
78
75
63
62
57
54
53
51
40
21
13
The ICE agent is charged by Minnesota authorities
ICE kills another civilian
The office of the Minnesota governor deploys the Minnesota National Guard
The killer will be given medical leave, paid vacation, and required to attend a two-week training program (type shit)
An ICE agent is killed
Trump deploys the National Guard to Minnesota
Trump pardons the ICE agent
George Floyd-level protests
Kristi Noem is impeached
Trump declares a national emergency that could be used to justify postponing or interfering with the next election.
The ICE agent is fired
Insurrection Act/Martial Law in Minneapolis
Nothing
Nationwide firearm ban for civilians
52
39
35
32
28
22
18
14
12
9
4
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1648
830
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