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Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit 2025 Held Aug 31-Sept 1 in Tianjin With Leaders From 20+ Countries and 10 Intl Organizations

5 months ago

US Foreign Policy

Policy

Politics

Trump Asserts U.S. Leads China in Artificial Intelligence Race

5 months ago

Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.26%chance

224741

OptionVotes

YES

5159

2655

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.96%chance

123209

OptionVotes

YES

6132

3376

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

1062

940

Vanadium in VRFBs reach 20% of global vanadium consumption by 2030?

Nov 26, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.85%chance

7963

OptionVotes

YES

1004

998

Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?

Dec 25, 1:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27688

OptionProbability

Better, cheaper GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are coming, and in pill form, too.

With rich countries living beyond their means, the risk of a bond-market crisis is growing.

Geothermal energy is worth watching.

Conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan and Myanmar.

Russia and China will test America’s commitment to its allies with “grey-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea.

Peace in Gaza will hold.

Will the Church of England take an affirming stance on gay marriage by 2030?

Apr 4, 12:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

62.87%chance

16250

OptionVotes

YES

1166

885

WW3 begins in 2026

Jan 6, 7:33 PMJun 6, 9:59 PM

7.17%chance

5136

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will global platinum availability fall below 2 million ounces by March 4, 2026, due to South African mine supply issues?

Feb 2, 8:42 PMMar 4, 8:42 PM

28.87%chance

371

OptionVotes

YES

120

Who will hold the Raeburn Shield at the end of 2026?

Dec 17, 3:29 AMDec 31, 3:21 AM

OptionProbability

England

New Zealand

South Africa

France

Ireland

Australia

Fiji

Scotland

Argentina

Italy

Other

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Will GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?

Will GiveWell fund Chlorhexidine for umbilical cord care by 1st January 2027?

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Vanadium in VRFBs reach 20% of global vanadium consumption by 2030?

Which "The Economist" "World Ahead" predictions for 2026 will come true?

Will the Church of England take an affirming stance on gay marriage by 2030?

WW3 begins in 2026

Will global platinum availability fall below 2 million ounces by March 4, 2026, due to South African mine supply issues?

Who will hold the Raeburn Shield at the end of 2026?

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