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Top stories

OpenAI Adds Connectors, Persistent Chats to Responses API

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Google Calendar

When will a regular person be able to use AI to answer phone calls for them?

Mar 20, 10:11 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

433605

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2025

Before 2026

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-10-01

87

80

79

55

0

0

0

0

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

182632

OptionProbability

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

2026

2029

53

17

16

12

10

Will Bing surpass Google by 2030?

Feb 9, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.18%chance

291837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2306

786

Will there be a dip in the proportion of AI-generated code compared to 2026 levels in any year through 2030, inclusive?

Sep 26, 2:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

7107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will Zuid-Limburg have a Demi Vollering Allee before EOY 2026?

Aug 13, 4:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.75%chance

6105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

57

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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