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Top stories

Google Opens Veo 3 AI Video Tool to All Users for Weekend Trial

Google Opens Veo 3 AI Video Tool to All Users for Weekend Trial

Authors

18

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Google DeepMind

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

Dec 9, 7:39 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

128484

OptionProbability

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "soft nationalization"

Anthropic, "soft nationalization"

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"

Any frontier AI company, "hard nationalization"

Other frontier AI firm, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "soft nationalization"

xAI, "hard nationalization"

Anthropic, "hard nationalization"

OpenAI, "hard nationalization"

Google DeepMind, "hard nationalization"

79

64

56

50

49

47

40

39

30

25

21

19

The AI company with the smartest AI system by the end of 2026

Jul 30, 8:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

888407

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google Deepmind

X.ai

Other

Meta

43

32

16

5

4

1

Will Google Deepmind and OpenAI have a major collaborative initiative by the end of 2030? (1000 mana subsidy)

Jun 19, 7:06 AMDec 30, 9:39 PM

52.59%chance

767314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2494

1805

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.83%chance

343302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2700

978

Will OpenAI, Google Deepmind or Anthropic de-domicile from the UK/US before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:50 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

6.57%chance

192787

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2678

765

Will "Why I Left Google DeepMind" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 6:58 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

89.83%chance

172654

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1749

32

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.71%chance

272186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

440

Serrano and Google DeepMind publish Navier-Stokes result by 2027?

Jun 25, 4:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.95%chance

261156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

248

40

Seb Krier gets fired OR promoted at Google DeepMind before September?

Jul 28, 11:41 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

14.43%chance

161011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

244

41

"Will Google DeepMind release a system where the AI itself (not human engineers) generates improvements to its own code

Nov 5, 9:15 PMDec 15, 11:59 PM

3.12%chance

7798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

557

18

Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?

Jun 13, 5:23 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

18498

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google DeepMind

Other

xAI

88

24

12

12

8

Will "AGI Safety & Alignment @ Google DeepMind is h..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 21, 7:04 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

6.53%chance

2107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

207

89

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