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Prediction markets for Google Gemini
OptionProbability
40
19
12
10
9
4
4
1
0
0
0
Who will create the first AI model to generate a high quality movie before 2028?
Feb 8, 12:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
3510396
OptionProbability
62
17
12
8
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
Is Gemini going to be used widely as a verb like how Google is used by EOY 2026?
Feb 27, 1:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3.91%chance
231621
OptionVotes
1890
882
OptionProbability
275
61
Will Google Gemini pass ChatGPT in the App Store by EOY?
Mar 27, 11:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
9.7%chance
16494
OptionVotes
305
33
Did Google intentionally announce Gemini Ultra in a state barely outperforming GPT-4 to slow the capabilities race?
Dec 8, 2:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
7.34%chance
10446
OptionVotes
478
135
Will Google release Gemini 3-pro before October 1, 2025?
Jul 10, 2:45 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM
55.32%chance
11319
OptionVotes
111
90
Will Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?
Mar 27, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
6.91%chance
11312
OptionVotes
367
27
When will someone be able to recreate Google's Hands-on with Gemini video for the first time?
Dec 12, 4:33 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
5168
OptionProbability
22
17
17
12
12
11
11
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