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Prediction markets for Google Pay
Will Anthropic models still be hosted on at least one of AWS, GCP, or Azure at expiry
Feb 28, 12:08 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM
97.16%chance
2711352
OptionVotes
6226
197
OptionProbability
69
48
39
35
33
30
21
14
6
6
4
0
0
0
Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?
Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
50.95%chance
52267
OptionVotes
1019
981
Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?
Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
74.89%chance
311936
OptionVotes
1629
626
Which Google or Microsoft Product still Exists even in January 2030
Sep 17, 6:31 AMJan 31, 6:29 PM
121525
OptionProbability
97
97
96
89
86
85
85
83
80
80
69
61
61
56
55
54
41
38
1
Kindle+LLM+audio readout combination product is available from Amazon by mid 2027
Dec 16, 5:23 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM
38.74%chance
17460
OptionVotes
1116
1014
Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026
Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM
53%chance
3151
OptionVotes
1062
942
Will these Google/Microsoft Products will rebrand/deprecated/discontinued (In 2039 or less)?
Sep 23, 12:52 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
4136
OptionProbability
69
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
27
Will Google Discontinue Google Pay (GPay) in India and replace by Google Wallet (Just like in US) in or before 2026
Nov 20, 3:37 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
30%chance
2131
OptionVotes
153
65