Government News

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

YES

The Pentagon cuts ties with Anthropic

The Pentagon declares Anthropic a "supply chain risk"

Anthropic files a lawsuit against the federal government

A judge grants an injunction against the Department of War

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation

The Department of War signs a deal to use OpenAI models instead

OpenAI signs a contract substantially weaker than Anthropic's requirements

An injunction is granted against the supply chain risk designation And survives unblocked by other courts for 6 months

The supply chain risk designation is officially issued

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before 2027

Anthropic's "supply chain risk" designation removed before July

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 OpenAI employees

The government offers the same terms to Anthropic as to OpenAI

US company with >100B total valuation cancels some Pentagon contract and uses Anthropic supply chain risk designation as stated justification

Anthropic's contract is publicly available

OpenAI's new contract is publicly available

The Pentagon invokes the Defense Production Act

Anthropic gives the government unfettered access of their own accord (they "cave in")

Autonomous weapon + surveillance Claude safeguards are removed for the Pentagon

The Pentagon designates Anthropic a supply chain risk, AND invokes the Defense Production Act

Resignation letter signed by at least 5 Anthropic researchers

Will Amazon have to divest / break with Anthropic in 2026?

Anthropic stops advancing AI capabilities

Dario Amodei leaves or is removed from Anthropic

The Pentagon continues to use Anthropic services without the requested changes (autonomous weapon + mass surveillance of americans)

NO

YES

YES

YES

Reform minority

Labour minority

Conservatives + Reform coalition

Labour majority

Reform majority

Conservatives minority

Labour + Greens + Liberal Democrats coalition

Conservatives majority

Labour + Liberal Democrats coalition

Labour + Greens coalition

Other

Green + Liberal Democrats coalition

Labour + Reform coalition

Conservatives + Liberal Democrats coalition

Labour + Conservatives coalition

NO

NO

NO

Option 1: Team A (The Firebrands: Sifuna/Babu/Arati/Orengo) - Resolves if Sifuna remains SG or ODM officially supports a presidential candidate (even from another party, e.g., Kalonzo Musyoka or Fred Matiang'i)with a nod from the firebrands

Option 2: Team B (The Broad-based: Wanga/Joho/Mbadi) - Resolves if a Team B member becomes SG or the party officially joins the Government coalition for 2027.