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Prediction markets for GPU
Did DeepSeek lie about the GPU compute budget they used in the training of v3?
Jan 25, 5:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
12.58%chance
7132050
OptionVotes
25925
4669
Will a single model running on a single consumer GPU (<1.5k 2020 USD) outperform GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks in the original paper by 2025?
Apr 8, 5:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
86.3%chance
293927
OptionVotes
1201
932
Will Extropic AI build thermodynamic computing hardware that runs an AI model faster/cheaper than GPU by 2030?
Mar 30, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
36.47%chance
151225
OptionVotes
1128
625
By 2030, will China have reached GPU parity with the US?
Oct 17, 8:38 PMDec 24, 11:59 PM
53.46%chance
191008
OptionVotes
1018
973
Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?
Feb 20, 6:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
85.83%chance
19828
OptionVotes
1502
814
Will China develop domestic GPU with comparable performance to NVIDIA H100 by 2026?
Jul 2, 8:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
86.25%chance
13638
OptionVotes
250
40
OptionVotes
1142
953
Will Nvidia still retain over 50% market share of PC gamer GPU usage by 2030
Dec 16, 1:20 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM
60.48%chance
15409
OptionVotes
1241
801
Will CUDA remain a monopoly for GPU software through 2027?
Dec 18, 6:14 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
56.42%chance
15363
OptionVotes
1012
965
Can model 90% as good as o4-mini be created with open source and <$500 GPU compute?
May 9, 4:25 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
13.73%chance
6272
OptionVotes
253
41
OptionVotes
311
233
Bolt Graphics releases Zeus GPU developer kits by EOY2025?
Jul 2, 7:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
45.65%chance
228
OptionVotes
515
496
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