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Top stories

Musk Launches Grok Imagine on X, Calling It ‘AI Vine’

Musk Launches Grok Imagine on X, Calling It ‘AI Vine’

Authors

28

1 day ago

Prediction markets for Heavy

By when will a second Starship / Super Heavy launch tower be operational?

Jun 10, 1:50 PMJul 2, 5:59 AM

37137772

OptionProbability

Flight 15

Flight 12

2026-01-01

Flight 11

Flight 10

2024-09-01

2025-01-01

2025-07-01

Flight 7

2025-03-01

94

83

64

13

3

0

0

0

0

0

Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?

Jun 21, 12:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.54%chance

203809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

56

How many times will SpaceX launch their Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

Jan 1, 7:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

132407

OptionProbability

151-170

135-150

171+

134 or less

52

26

16

7

Will Jiri Prochazka regain the Light Heavy Weight UFC title by the end of 2025?

Jan 21, 5:07 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.32%chance

111836

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

552

What is Grok 4 Heavy's performance on METR's task length evaluation?

Jul 10, 5:02 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

14745

OptionProbability

1.5 to 2 Hours

2 to 2.5 Hours

2.5 to 3 Hours

More than 3 Hours

0 to 1.5 Hours

48

25

15

7

5

Will 15 or more starship and super-heavy launches be required for Artemis 3?

Feb 19, 5:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

42.38%chance

16567

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1143

877

If Germany stops giving Ukraine heavy weapons, will Ukraine still exist in 2030?

Jul 4, 10:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

89.42%chance

12548

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

953

AI plays large role in determining how to mix heavy elements into alloys to take advantage of quantum properties by 2030

Jun 8, 3:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.87%chance

10420

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

148

Grok 4 Heavy gets on Humanity's Last Exam leaderboard?

Jul 18, 2:55 AMSep 2, 2:49 AM

24.21%chance

2401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

57

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.95%chance

13366

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1096

941

Will automated chemical synthesis produce heavy nitrogen/hydrogen versions of every amino acid >50% of sites by EOY 2025

Nov 15, 3:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.64%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

Will drinking heavy water/deuterium significantly affect relative ratio of fast to slow brain waves (and 1/f falloff)?

Jan 25, 11:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

80

62

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