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Prediction markets for Homo
Will homosexuality be legal in Dubai in 2035 (partially or fully)?
Jun 24, 5:15 AMJan 1, 4:59 PM
48.64%chance
483403
OptionVotes
1028
973
Efficient full homomorphic encryption for frontier model training by 2030?
Dec 19, 1:36 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
10.88%chance
192878
OptionVotes
1134
894
Is the sibling birth order effect on homosexuality real?
Oct 4, 3:59 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
63.3%chance
452876
OptionVotes
1059
950
Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?
May 31, 11:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
81.95%chance
171560
OptionVotes
2131
469
Will the US have a (new) homosexual or bisexual president by 2033?
Jan 30, 9:14 PMFeb 1, 5:00 AM
16.7%chance
321087
OptionVotes
1305
911
Will Cameroon decriminalize homosexuality before 2026?
Jul 22, 1:45 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM
27.97%chance
11978
OptionVotes
1605
623
Will Homosexual couples have the same rights as Heterosexual couples worldwide by 2050?
May 5, 4:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
7.39%chance
13556
OptionVotes
1238
953
By 2035, what whacky types of cultivated/lab-grown meat will be commercially available?
Jan 18, 12:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11546
OptionProbability
56
54
51
44
44
44
31
18
11
7
A startup in a programming language derived from homotopy type theory raises $10M by 2030
May 16, 6:57 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
24.58%chance
17528
OptionVotes
1282
880
What will be the most complete individual Denisovan fossil discovered by 2035?
Aug 19, 10:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM
6148
OptionProbability
71
41
34
31
31
27
20
19
By 2030, will we have a quantitative analysis on the relative QALYs lost by the death of one homosexual vs. one soldier?
Nov 18, 7:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM
20.91%chance
575
OptionVotes
183
104
Will Jose Luis Ricon have homocysteine levels lower than 9?
Apr 3, 10:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
45.25%chance
15
OptionVotes
55
45
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