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Prediction markets for Hope
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
78.04%chance
508725007
OptionVotes
16811
12177
OptionVotes
2036
363
OptionProbability
47
18
13
6
6
4
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
95
94
93
92
91
90
90
89
89
89
89
88
88
86
84
84
84
83
83
82
82
81
81
81
79
78
78
78
78
78
78
76
76
75
75
73
72
72
72
70
70
69
69
69
68
66
66
65
65
62
59
52
50
50
48
46
45
41
41
41
37
37
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
33
32
32
31
27
24
24
23
17
10
10
8
5
OptionProbability
94
92
90
84
84
82
75
60
59
43
34
27
27
3
In planecrash, what was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail?
Dec 7, 5:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
231920
OptionProbability
74
12
12
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Will there be a steep decrease of world human population during the year 2030, and for which reason?
Nov 22, 9:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
101134
OptionProbability
92
7
6
5
5
4
OptionProbability
52
35
11
2
1
What is the "particular line of dialog" in "A Game of Thrones" that is important in the last scene of the series?
Mar 9, 9:42 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
8575
OptionProbability
33
14
10
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
Will "Requiem for the hopes of a pre-AI world" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Mar 9, 4:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
9.16%chance
2510
OptionVotes
1510
935
This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030
Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
49%chance
15424
OptionVotes
51
49
OptionVotes
211
87
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