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Hope News

    Prediction markets for Hope

    Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

    Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    81.13%chance
    496718382

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    16276

    14269

    Smeth Stock [Hopefully Not Permanent]

    Nov 11, 11:32 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
    80.5%chance
    6527185

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2036

    363

    Who will appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

    Mar 25, 10:17 AMMay 7, 11:59 AM
    634202

    OptionProbability

    Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)

    Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)

    Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)

    Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)

    Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)

    Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)

    Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)

    Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)

    Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)

    Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)

    Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)

    Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)

    Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)

    Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)

    Pom Klementieff (Mantis)

    David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)

    Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)

    Chris Hemsworth (Thor)

    Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)

    Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)

    Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)

    Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)

    Benedict Wong (Wong)

    Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)

    Vin Diesel (Groot)

    Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)

    Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)

    Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)

    Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)

    Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)

    Karen Gillan (Nebula)

    Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)

    Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)

    Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)

    Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)

    Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)

    Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)

    Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)

    Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)

    Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)

    Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)

    Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)

    Winston Duke (M'Baku)

    Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)

    Paul Bettany (Vision)

    Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)

    Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)

    Danai Gurira (Okoye)

    Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)

    Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)

    Tom Hiddleston (Loki)

    Mahershala Ali (Blade)

    Sean Gunn (Kraglin)

    Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)

    Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)

    Wil Deusner (Skaar)

    Gemma Chan (Sersi)

    Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)

    Lia McHugh (Sprite)

    Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)

    Barry Keoghan (Druig)

    Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)

    Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)

    Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)

    Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)

    Seth Green (Howard the Duck)

    Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)

    Dave Bautista (Drax)

    Angelina Jolie (Thena)

    Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)

    Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)

    Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)

    Emilia Clarke (G'iah)

    Ralph Ineson (Galactus)

    May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)

    Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)

    Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)

    Brett Goldstein (Hercules)

    Don Lee (Gilgamesh)

    Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)

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    In planecrash, what was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail?

    Dec 7, 5:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    211901

    OptionProbability

    Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.

    Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)

    Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.

    Other

    A bluff.

    Something to prevent her from committing suicide

    Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.

    Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.

    Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves

    Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.

    Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.

    Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)

    Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.

    The answer will never be officially revealed.

    Something to help her learn rationality

    77

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    Who will deal the final blow against Kang in the MCU?

    May 6, 5:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    71898

    OptionProbability

    Loki

    Sylvie

    Mr. Fantastic

    Other

    Ant-Man (Lang)

    Spider-Man

    Hawkeye (Barton)

    Captain America (Rogers)

    Iron Man

    Black Widow (Romanoff)

    Nick Fury

    War Machine

    Winter Soldier

    Captain America (Wilson)

    Gamora

    Drax

    Rocket

    Groot

    Nebula

    Vision

    Ultron

    Wasp (Hope)

    Black Panther (T'Challa)

    Black Panther (Shuri)

    Wong

    Mantis

    Valkyrie

    Captain Marvel

    Yelena Belova

    Shang-Chi

    Sersi

    Thena

    Druig

    Makkari

    Kingo

    Phastos

    Phil Coulson

    Daisy Johnson

    Peggy Carter

    Black Bolt

    Daredevil

    Jessica Jones

    Luke Cage

    Iron Fist (Rand)

    Punisher

    Agatha Harkness

    Hawkeye (Bishop)

    Moon Knight

    Ms. Marvel

    Monica Rambeau

    She-Hulk

    Ironheart

    Echo

    Blade

    Wonder Man

    Okoye

    Nova

    Deadpool

    Wolverine

    Werewolf by Night

    The Invisible Woman

    The Thing

    The Human Torch

    Thor

    Hulk

    Thanos

    Star-Lord

    Scarlet Witch

    Doctor Strange

    Adam Warlock

    Kang

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    2026 Kentucky Derby Starters

    Dec 12, 9:38 PMMay 3, 6:49 PM
    41497

    OptionProbability

    Will PALADIN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SILENT TACTIC be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will NEARLY be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will RENEGADE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will CHIEF WALLABEE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will COMMANDMENT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will NAPOLEON SOLO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will FURTHER ADO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will LITMUS TEST be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will MR. A. P. be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will STRATEGIC RISK be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will BAYTOWN DREAMER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SLEEPINGONFREEDOM be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will OSCAR'S HOPE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will QUALITY MISCHIEF be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will CARSON STREET be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will MY WORLD be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will BUETANE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will OTTINHO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SECURED FREEDOM be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SO HAPPY be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will BRANT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SPICE RUNNER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will INTREPIDO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will INCREDIBOLT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will UNIVERSE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will BLACKOUT TIME be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SATONO VOYAGE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will CANNONEER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will TALKIN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will COMPORT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will BOYD be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will BALBOA be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will COURTING be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will FINAL SCORE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will DESERT GATE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will BLACKSMITH be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will VERY CONNECTED be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will GOLDEN TEMPO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will PYROMANCER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will PLUTARCH be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SOLDIER N DIPLOMAT be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will ARCTIC BEAST be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will TIME FOR MUSIC be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will ESSENTIAL TIME be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will ROYALAMERICAN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will D'CODE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will IRON HONOR be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will ENGLISHMAN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SOCKDOLAGER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will CHIP HONCHO be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will EXPRESS KID be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will RANCHO SANTA FE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SCAR SHIP be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will CROSSINGTHECHANNEL be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will CROWN THE BUCKEYE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will EWING be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will LIBERTY NATIONAL be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will MESQUITE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will MOB be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will THUNDER BUCK be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will THUNDEROUSLY be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will WAYMARK be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will WHITE TIGER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will JACKSON HOLE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SIX SPEED be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will DEVON ISLAND be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will BROTHERLY LOVE be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will RAMMAAS be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will DUKE OF IMMATIN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will TALK TO ME JIMMY be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will GRITTINESS be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will SCHOOLYARDSUPERMAN be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will CIRCLE TAP be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will STAR SWEEPER be a '26 KY Derby starter?

    Will TED NOFFEY be a '26 KY Derby starter?

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    11

    Will there be a steep decrease of world human population during the year 2030, and for which reason?

    Nov 22, 9:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    101134

    OptionProbability

    There will be no decrease in population

    Sicknesses

    Hunger due to low crops due to global warming

    Wars due to lack of ressources

    Collapse of society after a massive shutdown due to over dependance on AI and computers

    People willingly stopping to procreate for several reasons (attempt to mitigate global warming, lack of hope in future,...)

    92

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    What will the fate of vanilla be within the next decade?

    Dec 18, 4:12 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    25583

    OptionProbability

    A bio revolution of resurgence! The bean is back in everyone’s hands

    A prized middle class item

    Chemical vanillin for all (total extinction)

    For the rich only

    A bleak hope (Only seeds are left)

    52

    35

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    What is the "particular line of dialog" in "A Game of Thrones" that is important in the last scene of the series?

    Mar 9, 9:42 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM
    8575

    OptionProbability

    Other

    "There are still direwolves beyond the Wall. We hear them on our rangings." (Jon I)

    "We should start back." (Prologue)

    "I just want to stand on top of the Wall and piss off the edge of the world." (Tyrion I)

    "When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives." (Arya II)

    "I think he is a giant come among us, here at the end of the world." (Tyrion III)

    "And what will you be wanting, this time of night?” “A last look.” (Tyrion III)

    "All dwarfs may be bastards, yet not all bastards need be dwarfs." (Jon I)

    "Love is the bane of honor, the death of duty." (Jon VIII)

    "All dwarves are bastards in their father's eyes." (Jon I)

    "I hope the boy does wake. I would be most interested to hear what he might have to say." (Tyrion I)

    33

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    Will "Requiem for the hopes of a pre-AI world" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

    Mar 9, 4:59 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
    9.16%chance
    2510

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1510

    935

    Fancysloth Stock [hopefully not permanent]

    Nov 16, 3:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    77.08%chance
    7412

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    211

    87

    This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

    Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    50%chance
    13402

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    50

    50

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