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Hope News

    Prediction markets for Hope

    Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

    Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    78.04%chance
    508725007

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    16811

    12177

    Smeth Stock [Hopefully Not Permanent]

    Nov 11, 11:32 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM
    80.5%chance
    6527185

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2036

    363

    Best Album at 2027 Grammy Award ceremony?

    Apr 13, 12:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM
    1615433

    OptionProbability

    Olivia Rodrigo, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love

    Rosalia, Lux

    Olivia Dean, The Art of Loving

    Noah Kahan, The Great Divide

    Phoebe Bridgers, Lost Weekend

    Madonna, Confessions II

    Ella Langley, Dandelion

    Taylor Swift, The Life of a Showgirl

    Other

    Brandi Carlisle, Returning To Myself

    Bruno Mars, The Romantic

    Justin Bieber, Swag II

    Rob Thomas, All Night Days

    Cardi B, Am I the Drama?

    Doja Cat, Vie

    Tame Impala, Deadbeat

    21 Savage, What Happened to the Streets?

    Snow tha Product, Before I Crash Out

    NOFX, A to H

    Alter Bridge, Alter Bridge

    ASAP Rocky, Don't Be Dumb

    Nick Jonas, Sunday Best

    Charli XCX, Wuthering Heights

    Mumford & Sons, Prizefighter

    Gorillaz, The Mountain

    Hillary Duff, Luck. . . Or Something

    Yungblud, Idols II

    BLACKPINK, DEADLINE

    BTS, Arirang

    Nine Inch Nails, Nine Inch Noize

    Demi Lovato, It's Not That Deep

    Foo Fighters, Your Favorite Toy

    Jason Aldean, Songs About Us

    Gracie Abrams, Daughter from Hell

    Ariana Grande, Petal

    Flea, Honora

    Harry Styles, Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally

    Drake, Iceman

    Evanescence, Sanctuary

    Afroman, Freedom of Speech

    M.I.A., M.I.7.

    Goose, Big Modern!

    Hayley Kiyoko, Girls like Girls

    The Warning, Everything's Falling

    Paul McCartney, The Boys of Dungeon Lane

    Raye, This Music May Contain Hope

    47

    18

    13

    6

    6

    4

    2

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Who will appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

    Mar 25, 10:17 AMMay 7, 11:59 AM
    745147

    OptionProbability

    Robert Downey, Jr. (Victor von Doom / Doctor Doom, Tony Stark / Iron Man)

    Tom Holland (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Chris Hemsworth (Thor)

    Anthony Mackie (Sam Wilson / Captain America)

    Pedro Pascal (Reed Richards / Mister Fantastic)

    Benedict Cumberbatch (Dr. Stephen Strange)

    Ebon Moss-Bachrach (Ben Grimm / The Thing)

    Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova / Black Widow)

    Chris Evans (Steve Rogers / Captain America)

    Simu Liu (Shang-Chi)

    Joseph Quinn (Johnny Storm / Human Torch)

    Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes / Winter Soldier / White Wolf)

    Vanessa Kirby (Sue Storm / Invisible Woman)

    Paul Rudd (Scott Lang / Ant-Man)

    Hannah John-Kamen (Ava Starr / Ghost)

    Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Valentina Allegra de Fontaine)

    Tenoch Huerta Mejía (Namor)

    David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov / Red Guardian)

    Danny Ramirez (Joaquin Torres / Falcon)

    Iman Vellani (Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel)

    Hugh Jackman (James "Logan" Howlett / Wolverine)

    Mark Ruffalo (Bruce Banner / Hulk)

    Samuel L. Jackson (Nick Fury)

    Dominique Thorne (Riri Williams / Ironheart)

    Benedict Wong (Wong)

    Chris Pratt (Peter Quill / Star-Lord)

    Vin Diesel (Groot)

    Ryan Reynolds (Wade Wilson / Deadpool)

    Jeremy Renner (Clint Barton / Hawkeye)

    Tom Hiddleston (Loki)

    Wyatt Russell (John Walker / U.S. Agent)

    Brie Larson (Carol Danvers / Captain Marvel)

    Letitia Wright (Shuri / Black Panther)

    Karen Gillan (Nebula)

    Tatiana Maslany (Jennifer Walters / She-Hulk)

    Hailee Steinfeld (Kate Bishop / Hawkeye)

    Teyonah Parris (Monica Rambeau)

    Xochitl Gomez (America Chavez)

    Hayley Atwell (Peggy Carter / Captain Carter)

    Pom Klementieff (Mantis)

    Kathryn Newton (Cassie Lang)

    Bradley Cooper (Rocket Raccoon)

    Will Poulter (Adam Warlock)

    Don Cheadle (James "Rhodey" Rhodes / War Machine)

    Charlie Cox (Matt Murdock / Daredevil)

    Tessa Thompson (Valkyrie)

    Winston Duke (M'Baku)

    Elizabeth Olsen (Wanda Maximoff / Scarlet Witch)

    Paul Bettany (Vision)

    Kathryn Hahn (Agatha Harkness)

    Danai Gurira (Okoye)

    Sean Gunn (Kraglin)

    Alaqua Cox (Maya Lopez / Echo)

    Lupita Nyong'o (Nakia)

    Evangeline Lilly (Hope van Dyne / Wasp)

    Seth Green (Howard the Duck)

    Joe Locke (Teen / Wiccan)

    Zoe Saldaña (Gamora)

    Dave Bautista (Drax)

    Gael García Bernal (Jack Russell / Werewolf by Night)

    Tobey Maguire (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Oscar Isaac (Marc Spector / Moon Knight, Steven Grant / Mr. Knight, Jake Lockley)

    Scarlett Johansson (Natasha Romanoff / Black Widow)

    Andrew Garfield (Peter Parker / Spider-Man)

    Gemma Chan (Sersi)

    Kumail Nanjiani (Kingo)

    Lia McHugh (Sprite)

    Brian Tyree Henry (Phastos)

    Lauren Ridloff (Makkari)

    Barry Keoghan (Druig)

    Yahya Abdul-Mateen II (Simon Williams / Wonder Man)

    Ralph Ineson (Galactus)

    Angelina Jolie (Thena)

    May Calamawy (Layla El-Faouly / Scarlet Scarab)

    Jeffrey Wright (The Watcher)

    Mahershala Ali (Blade)

    Emilia Clarke (G'iah)

    Wil Deusner (Skaar)

    Kit Harington (Dane Whitman)

    Harrison Ford (Thaddeus "Thunderbolt" Ross)

    Brett Goldstein (Hercules)

    Harry Styles (Eros / Starfox)

    Patton Oswalt (Pip the Troll)

    Don Lee (Gilgamesh)

    Olga Kurylenko (Antonia Dreykov / Taskmaster)

    95

    94

    93

    92

    91

    90

    90

    89

    89

    89

    89

    88

    88

    86

    84

    84

    84

    83

    83

    82

    82

    81

    81

    81

    79

    78

    78

    78

    78

    78

    78

    76

    76

    75

    75

    73

    72

    72

    72

    70

    70

    69

    69

    69

    68

    66

    66

    65

    65

    62

    59

    52

    50

    50

    48

    46

    45

    41

    41

    41

    37

    37

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    34

    33

    32

    32

    31

    27

    24

    24

    23

    17

    10

    10

    8

    5

    2027 Album of the Year Grammy nominees

    May 23, 2:19 PMNov 15, 11:59 AM
    283116

    OptionProbability

    'The Art of Loving' (Olivia Dean)

    'You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love' (Olivia Rodrigo)

    'The Romantic' (Bruno Mars)

    'The Life of a Showgirl' (Taylor Swift)

    'Lux' (Rosalia)

    'This Music May Contain Hope' (Raye)

    'The Great Divide' (Noah Kahan)

    'Dandelion' (Ella Langley)

    Phoebe Bridgers, Lost Weekend

    'Returning to Myself' (Brandi Carlile)

    'Middle of Nowhere' (Kacey Musgraves)

    'Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally' (Harry Styles)

    'Petal' (Ariana Grande)

    'Arirang' (BTS)

    94

    92

    90

    84

    84

    82

    75

    60

    59

    43

    34

    27

    27

    3

    OptionProbability

    Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.

    Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.

    Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)

    Other

    Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.

    A bluff.

    Something to prevent her from committing suicide

    Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.

    Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.

    Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves

    Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.

    Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)

    Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.

    The answer will never be officially revealed.

    Something to help her learn rationality

    74

    12

    12

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    OptionProbability

    There will be no decrease in population

    Sicknesses

    Hunger due to low crops due to global warming

    Wars due to lack of ressources

    Collapse of society after a massive shutdown due to over dependance on AI and computers

    People willingly stopping to procreate for several reasons (attempt to mitigate global warming, lack of hope in future,...)

    92

    7

    6

    5

    5

    4

    OptionProbability

    A bio revolution of resurgence! The bean is back in everyone’s hands

    A prized middle class item

    Chemical vanillin for all (total extinction)

    For the rich only

    A bleak hope (Only seeds are left)

    52

    35

    11

    2

    1

    OptionProbability

    Other

    "There are still direwolves beyond the Wall. We hear them on our rangings." (Jon I)

    "We should start back." (Prologue)

    "I just want to stand on top of the Wall and piss off the edge of the world." (Tyrion I)

    "When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives." (Arya II)

    "I think he is a giant come among us, here at the end of the world." (Tyrion III)

    "And what will you be wanting, this time of night?” “A last look.” (Tyrion III)

    "All dwarfs may be bastards, yet not all bastards need be dwarfs." (Jon I)

    "Love is the bane of honor, the death of duty." (Jon VIII)

    "All dwarves are bastards in their father's eyes." (Jon I)

    "I hope the boy does wake. I would be most interested to hear what he might have to say." (Tyrion I)

    33

    14

    10

    6

    6

    6

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

    Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    49%chance
    15424

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    51

    49

    Fancysloth Stock [hopefully not permanent]

    Nov 16, 3:33 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM
    77.08%chance
    7412

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    211

    87

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