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Rabada Returns as South Africa Name ODI, T20 Squads for England Tour

6 months ago

Australia Hits Record 431/2 With Three Centuries in Second-Biggest ODI Win Over South Africa

Cricket

Sports

Australia Hits Record 431/2 With Three Centuries in Second-Biggest ODI Win Over South Africa

5 months ago

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

16706

12559

Will Bitcoin ever go below $100.00 (one hundred) USD again?

Mar 8, 11:17 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.62%chance

6641419

OptionVotes

YES

3433

481

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Apr 22, 2:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39%chance

5322554

OptionVotes

YES

1659

813

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Dec 12, 3:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41%chance

228785

OptionVotes

YES

11996

8336

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

Apr 24, 2:46 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

27.7%chance

705955

OptionVotes

YES

2407

2217

What will happen to Hugging Face?

Feb 22, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

764893

OptionProbability

Acquisition (for >$4.5bn)

IPO

None of the above before 2029

Bankruptcy, collapse or acquisition for <$4.5bn

How many people will follow Scott Alexander's example and donate a kidney?

Oct 27, 5:09 AMOct 28, 6:59 AM

314306

OptionProbability

Ten-ish (6-17)

A few (2-5)

Dozens (18-60)

One

A hundred-ish (61-149)

Hundreds (150-999)

Zero :(

Thousand+ (≥1000)

Other

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Dec 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 7:58 AM

60.73%chance

18676

OptionVotes

YES

1740

1045

Which of these Forbes predictions will hold up?

Mar 13, 5:23 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

18527

OptionProbability

Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

We will interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today.

AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

“Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower than it is today. Intel’s will be meaningfully higher than it is today.

Will there be an official Hundreds of Beavers video game released by the end of 2027?

Jun 2, 2:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.03%chance

7240

OptionVotes

YES

1105

905

Is it ethically acceptable, from a utilitarian viewpoint, for me to spend many hundreds of dollars to attend Manifest?

Mar 26, 5:39 PM

380

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Prediction markets for Hundred

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Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Will Bitcoin ever go below $100.00 (one hundred) USD again?

Will Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Did the IDF bury hundreds of Palestinian civilians in mass graves near Nasser and Al-Shifa hospitals?

What will happen to Hugging Face?

How many people will follow Scott Alexander's example and donate a kidney?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Will AI innovations in computer hacking, financial crime, and fraud cost the world more than one hundred billion dollars by 2030?

Which of these Forbes predictions will hold up?

Will there be an official Hundreds of Beavers video game released by the end of 2027?

Is it ethically acceptable, from a utilitarian viewpoint, for me to spend many hundreds of dollars to attend Manifest?

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