Imagine News

xAI Releases Grok Update, Boosts Speed and Animation in Imagine

1 year ago

AI Products

xAI Releases Grok App Version 1.1.62 Adding Text Chat With Companions Ani, Valentine, Rudi and Removes Ani’s Outfit

1 year ago

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.01%chance

181305889

OptionVotes

YES

110682

29252

Elon Musk (props)

Mar 7, 12:23 PMMar 7, 12:23 PM

3915129

OptionProbability

Grok 4.6 is released by August 31, 2026

Elon Musk publicly calls for pausing advanced AI development or joins a major AI safety treaty by December 31, 2026

Neuralink implants surpass 1,000 humans by December 31, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine #1 on Artificial Analysis video leaderboard end of March

Optimus Gen 3 revealed by June 30, 2026

xAI releases Grok 4.5 or Grok 5 by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits China by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits India by March 14, 2026

Elon Musk visits Norway by March 13, 2026

Starship V3 reaches orbit by March 13, 2026

Grok 4.2 reaches No.1 on LMArena Text leaderboard by March 13, 2026

Optimus Gen 3 available for public purchase before March 13, 2026

Cybercab available for public purchase before March 13 2026

100

Will Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year? [Kalshi]

Jul 22, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

399507

OptionVotes

YES

2000

500

How many new Tesla models will go on sale in 2026?

Jan 3, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75645

OptionProbability

Zero?! Have a little faith!

One, playing safe

Other

Two! That would break the internet

Three? Imagine the tweets!

Four?! Really? You might as well bet on other

Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey?

Jul 23, 7:54 PMDec 31, 8:51 PM

292840

OptionProbability

Nolan (2026)

Grok Imagine

xAI (props)

Mar 7, 11:36 AMMar 7, 11:36 AM

151968

OptionProbability

Colossus supercluster hits 1.5GW by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine supports 1080p 30s videos by September 30, 2026

xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026

xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents operating the functions of a digital software company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026

Grok-5 utilizes a multi-agent architecture composed of several LLMs like Grok-4.2

Grok-5 publicly released by August 1, 2026

xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026

100

Will "Near-Instantly Aborting the Worst Pain Imagin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 6:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

65.87%chance

81155

OptionVotes

YES

1414

119

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.7%chance

14622

OptionVotes

YES

1157

406

Machine using energy measured in imaginary numbers exists by EOY2050?

Jul 12, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.03%chance

6244

OptionVotes

YES

270

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

Dec 21, 8:09 PMDec 31, 7:53 PM

5216

OptionProbability

Morimoto & Koshland (1991) "Short-term and long-term memory in single cells"

Kandel, Dudai & Mayford (2014) "The Molecular and Systems Biology of Memory"

Ortega-de San Luis & Ryan (2022) "Understanding the physical basis of memory: Molecular mechanisms of the engram”

Auletta (2011) “Cognitive biology” Chapter 17

Michaelian (2011) “Generative memory”

Michaelian & Sutton (2017) “Memory”

Kandel (2009) "The Biology of Memory: A Forty-Year Perspective”

Schacter (1997) "Searching For Memory"

Schacter & Addis (2007) “The cognitive neuroscience of constructive memory: remembering the past and imagining the future”

Frise (2023) “Epistemological Problems of Memory”

Imagine you are suddenly transported to 2026 BC, where would you rather live for the rest of your life?

Apr 20, 11:49 PM

180

Must one imagine Sisyphus happy?

Nov 18, 4:59 AM

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Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Elon Musk (props)

Will Grok Imagine’s full-length Odyssey film be released this year? [Kalshi]

How many new Tesla models will go on sale in 2026?

Will Manifold prefer Nolan’s or Grok’s Odyssey?

xAI (props)

Will "Near-Instantly Aborting the Worst Pain Imagin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Machine using energy measured in imaginary numbers exists by EOY2050?

How will I rate these writings? [Memory]

Imagine you are suddenly transported to 2026 BC, where would you rather live for the rest of your life?

Must one imagine Sisyphus happy?

Latest stories

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